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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)

Chapter: Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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E
Impacts Workshop Program

Workshop on Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change

March 22-23, 2001

Foundry Building, Washington, D.C.

Thursday, March 22nd

9:00 AM

Briefing of participants on background on abrupt climate change (Peteet, Nordhaus)

10:00 AM

First session on ecosystem impacts (with break)

 

A.

Vegetational change

Allen on forest/woodland shifts; Cook on forest response; Koenig on seed production; Swetnam on fire & ecosystems

 

B.

Animals & Climate Change

Leopold on mid-US phenology; Daszak on disease;

12:30 PM

LUNCH

1:30 PM

First session on economic impacts (with break)

 

A.

Methods

Nordhaus on alternative approaches; Smith on IPCC report

 

B.

Unmanaged or unmanageable systems

Reilly on agriculture; Yohe on oceans; Mendelsohn on forests; Ausubel on fisheries

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
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4:00 PM

General Discussion

5:00 PM

ADJOURN FOR THE DAY

6:00 PM

(Optional) The National Academies, Polar Research Board

Public Lecture: Climate Change: From the Poles to the World, presented by Dr. Richard Alley. The Cecil and Ida Green Building, Room 104, 2001 Wisconsin Avenue, NW.

Friday, March 23rd

9:00 AM

Second session on ecosystem impacts

Hydrological cycle Inouye on snowfall and altitudinal migrants; Kling on freshwater ecosystems; Lowell on Arctic and glacial response; Dyurgerov on alpine glaciers

11:00 AM

Second session on economic impacts

Thermohaline circulation studies

Toth, Tol, and Keller on thermohaline circulation reversal

12:00 PM

LUNCH

1:00 PM

Third session on societal impacts and responses

 

A.

Human and societal responses

Weiss on ancient civilizations

 

B.

Responses in today’s world

Weyant on technology; Pielke on adaptation

2:20 PM

General conclusions from the different areas

3:15 PM

Tentative recommendations for the report

4:00 PM

ADJOURN

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 216
Suggested Citation:"Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program." National Research Council. 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10136.
×
Page 217
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The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.

Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change?

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps.

Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

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