Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs (2012)

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Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 76 6. Perceived Gap Analysis and Research Needs 6.1. Perceived Research Gaps The perceived research gaps listed in this section were culled from the interviews conducted for this project. In some cases, there are one or more projects that are addressing all or some of the stated need, but these might not be familiar to the organization being interviewed. To assist the reader, these related projects are cited via project numbers, which are references to the projects listed in Section 3. The section headings below are based on a review of the specific perceived gaps and therefore differ somewhat from the subject and context areas associated with each project and presented in earlier sections of this report. 6.1.1. Cargo Packaging and Handling Perceived research gaps involving cargo packaging and handling include two areas of study, the first of which is research into human factors affecting hazardous materials air cargo handling. FAA representatives suggested that specific areas of research in this area might include the training requirements, methods, and locations used for screening packages as well as better defining carrier responsibility with regard to discovering undeclared hazardous materials. While PHMSA’s Office of Hazardous Materials Safety (OHM) is currently developing a research and development program plan (see project 120) that will specifically include studies of human factors relating to hazardous materials, there are no research initiatives planned or in progress to specifically study human factors in relation to screening air cargo for hazmat packages. The second perceived research gap involving cargo packaging and handling involves curtailing shipments of undeclared hazardous material return shipments from small businesses and consumers. FAA personnel suggested that return shipments of hazmat from these two sources may often be shipped as standard packages processed with mainstream shipments. The volume and reporting rates of these undeclared shipments is currently not well known. The Conference on Safe Transportation of Hazardous Articles (COSTHA) is conducting a broad-scope “reverse logistics” research project that investigates standards and regulations for return shipments of hazmat. The COSTHA project does not specifically focus on air cargo transport or the production of volume data, however. Gap Summary • Learn more about the human factors implications to current and probable future changes to the cargo handling systems across all modes but particularly related to air shipments. • Determine the best approach(es) for reducing the risks involved with the return shipment of hazardous materials. This includes a reduction in these shipments that are not declared as hazardous materials. 6.1.2. Emergency Planning and Response Emergency planning and response is the area most often cited by interviewees as having current unmet research needs. One focus within this area is development, collection, dissemination, and use of hazmat commodity flow data to facilitate emergency planning. Recent TRB projects (see projects 25 and 26) have addressed improving commodity flow data while a Texas A&M project (see project 16) has investigated collection of such data and its integration into local hazmat planning. A systematic approach for ensuring the availability of such data to local emergency response planners has not yet been addressed, however.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 77 FRA personnel suggested that research is needed into two issues involving rural emergency response. One such issue is how rural areas under differing rural response structures, such as all-volunteer vs. fully-funded, approach hazmat risks and emergency planning. The other potential area for study is to investigate how long-term (i.e., multiple-days to a week) response efforts might be sustained in rural environments given volunteer response forces, mutual aid agreements, and potentially scarce equipment resources. While a recent TRB study (see project 17) addressing the assessment of emergency response needs and capabilities is tangentially related to these research concerns, there have been no recent research initiatives focusing on these unique issues facing rural hazmat emergency planners and responders. Two research gaps identified through the TRB HM-01 project focus on Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) participants. The first involves research into how LEPCs might keep members active and involved and avoid apathy and turnover. The second research opportunity is to develop a web- based, self-sustaining national registry of LEPC members to support U.S. EPA communication and coordination with LEPCs. HM-01 also documents the need for research into improving communication, data collection, and data storage among local entities, such as LEPCs, and higher-level governments, such as state and federal organizations. No new projects have yet been initiated to address these potential research areas since the publication of HM-01. The informational needs of hazmat responders were suggested by interviewees as an area requiring additional research. One potential research focus, suggested by an FRA representative, is to define the extent of the training required by hazmat emergency responders. This research goal has been addressed, at least in part, by recent TRB-sponsored research into the effectiveness of hazmat transportation training (see project 23) and post-secondary education curricula for emergency responders (see project 31). The AT040 committee suggested hazmat responders would benefit from a comprehensive response guidebook that includes all types of incidents and all probable types of hazardous materials releases, arranged in a hierarchical manner. This guidebook would include, for example, information on biological and infectious substances, in addition to chemicals, and would address the actions to be taken by qualified hazmat responders in addition to any first responder. To date, no initiatives have been undertaken to address the production of such a guidebook. Local planning for pipeline incidents is another area perceived as needing additional research. Representatives for the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU APL) suggested that state and local responders rarely focus on pipeline response since pipelines are an issue of interstate commerce. Responsibility for pipeline oversight is not standardized from state to state or among local governments, making coordination among these entities difficult. Additionally, because a pipeline incident in one location can affect users in other counties or states, it may not be readily obvious which government entity is responsible for initiating a response effort. Research must be conducted to establish standard practices for structuring pipeline oversight and establishing responsible parties for initiating response efforts. While recent research has explored best practices for pipeline emergency response plans (see project 19), no studies have focused on pipeline response from a state and local organizational viewpoint. An interviewee from JHU APL recommended investigating the development of improved placarding technologies. While current placards provide useful information to first responders, they can also be utilized by terrorists to select high-consequence targets. Development of more secure methods for disclosing hazmat containers’ contents, such as the use of radio frequency identification signals, must be

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 78 pursued in order to continue to provide critical information to responders without revealing that information to the public at large. While no recent research has focused on alternative methods of placarding, the AAR has conducted an investigation on alternatives to qualification markings to facilitate electronic fleet management (see project 49) that has potential to be useful to researchers in this field. Recent work on electronic shipping papers (see project 24) may also prove relevant and useful in this area. Gap Summary • Many interviewees mentioned the need for the development, collection, dissemination, and use of hazmat commodity flow data to facilitate emergency planning. • With the limited resources available to many rural emergency response organizations, including full-time personnel, there is a need to better understand the unique issues they face and identify best practices for addressing them. • Improving communication and engagement with local emergency planning committee (LEPC) members is necessary to improve hazardous materials response planning and coordination. • Beyond the information for initial response actions in the Emergency Response Guidebook, there is a need for specific guidance on the actions to be taken by qualified hazmat responders in addition to any first responders. This guidance could be incorporated into additional training for hazmat emergency response. • Incorporating pipeline-specific response into planning and guidance documents would also be useful. • The investigation of improved hazmat placarding technologies can interface with the current work on electronic shipping papers for hazmat shipments. 6.1.3. Facility Risk Assessment Proposed research areas involving facility risk assessments include defining guidelines for conducting risk assessments at distribution facilities. FRA personnel suggested that lines of jurisdiction governing safety at distribution facilities, such as ethanol distribution and transloading facilities, are often unclear. The FRA representatives indicated that guidelines for conducting risk assessments at these facilities could be used to increase public safety, but a lack of funding and uncertainty about the best research approach are impediments to developing such guidelines. Current tools, such as IMESAFR (see project 187), and research, such as projects underway by DHS/TSA (see projects 80, 81, and 84), do address risk assessments at facilities. None of these projects, however, seem to directly address the FRA personnel’s desire for development of risk assessment guidelines for individual facilities. Representatives from the Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME) suggested that frequency data for industrial explosions outside of the U.S. and Canada are needed. Currently, explosion event probability data are relatively well-developed for the U.S. and Canada, but these data are not transferrable to other parts of the world where regulations and standard operating procedures may vary from North American practices. Development of such data, or for multiplying factors to be used to convert North American probability data to other regions, would increase the accuracy of explosive risk assessments at transportation facilities throughout the world. No research is currently being conducted to address this data need, and IME cites a lack of resources, in terms of manpower and funding, as potential impediments.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 79 Gap Summary • While there is a lot of research and work related to facility risk assessment, there appears to be a need for additional research or collection of best practices for distribution facility risk assessment. • There is a need to develop industrial explosion event probability data or applicable proxies for application to risk assessments outside North America. 6.1.4. Commodity Flow Data Improved collection, dissemination, and use of hazardous material commodity flow data was suggested by several interviewees as an important understudied research area. Recommendations from the HM- 01 research team, DHS/TSA, California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), and JHU APL suggest that adequate hazmat commodity flow data is often unavailable to government entities and emergency planners at the federal, state, and local levels. Research is needed to develop a means for ensuring that these data are made available to pertinent authorities at all levels of government and that these data are considered when developing emergency management plans. DHS/TSA representatives further suggest that sound governmental and planning decisions could be bolstered through development of an educational program designed to increase decision makers’ understanding of the commodities, logistics, and processes involved in hazmat transportation within their jurisdiction. Additional suggested research involving hazardous material commodity flow information includes commodity flow surveys done on a state-wide basis and surveys that account for temporal variation in flows. The former would support local and rural planners who often lack the resources to conduct surveys themselves, while the latter would better define expected hazmat movements through a community at any given time of the day, week, month, or year. As discussed in the section “Emergency Planning & Response” above, recent TRB projects (see projects 25 and 26) have addressed improving commodity flow data to support local emergency planning efforts. Additionally, Texas A&M (see project 16) has investigated collection of commodity flow data and its integration into hazmat planning on a local scale. Current research has not yet addressed a method for ensuring the availability of commodity flow data to local planners and its integration into emergency response plans. Emergency planner education initiatives and research are currently limited, with COSTHA’s broad-based outreach project (see project 159) being the only work related to this area. Similarly, state-wide commodity flow surveys and temporally variable surveys remain unaddressed. Potential impediments cited by interviewees to gathering commodity flow information include expense and difficulties gathering proprietary information from private companies. Gap Summary • There remains a strong need to better understand the flow of hazardous materials through local communities to support effective and efficient emergency response planning. o To augment ongoing research, there is a current need for a systematic approach for ensuring the availability of relevant local hazmat commodity flow data. o State-wide commodity flow studies may be a good approach to fill some large gaps at a cost-effective level. o Understanding the temporal variations in hazmat flows can also be beneficial to communities that have significant variations in planning for response. • Approaches for addressing the acquisition of proprietary commodity flow data is another need.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 80 6.1.5. Hazmat Release Consequences Interviewees suggested several perceived gaps in research regarding data for quantifying consequences to human health and society from hazmat releases. A representative from the AT040 committee suggested developing an improved methodology for estimating contaminant travel time in rivers. Accurate estimates of this kind would facilitate emergency planning for communities positioned downstream from hazards, such as transport pipelines and vessel locations. Another AT040 suggestion involves determining the ratio of breathable particles from a terrorist attack on spent nuclear fuel packages. Defining this ratio through the use of testing on real spent nuclear fuel would help to determine the human health threat from such an attack and act as a foundation for assessing similar attacks without the expense of testing. Additionally, an AAR representative suggested that data be developed to describe the current cost of human fatalities or injuries. Such information would be useful in quantifying the potential consequences of a hazmat release, but potential legal liabilities deter the necessary research efforts. No recent research projects have specifically focused on any of these areas of hazmat release consequence estimation. Gap Summary • Development of an improved methodology for estimating hazardous material travel times in waterways is needed. • Improvements to estimating the economic costs of hazardous materials incidents, including the costs of fatalities and injuries. 6.1.6. Hazmat Transportation Research Several research areas were suggested by interviewees that focus on determining useful hazmat transportation research projects and employing their results. PHMSA OHM representatives suggested that there is a need to proactively, rather than reactively, identify new research opportunities and to establish a defined process for selecting and conducting research projects. The TRB Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program was developed to address these specific concerns and is currently conducting research in these areas (see projects 21 and 28). PHMSA’s OHM is also currently investigating research needs (see project 120) as part of its new research and development program, as is Transport Canada (see projects 165, 167, and 172). An FRA representative suggested that research should be conducted into how hazmat transportation research could be better used to drive public policy. While there are a number of current research initiatives underway to develop data for use in policy decisions (see projects 22, 84, 171, and 179, for examples), these projects do not focus specifically on improving the use of these data for making policy decisions. Current research in this area is constrained to integration of commodity flow data into local emergency planning decisions (see projects 16, 25, and 26). Gap Summary • Some interviewees mentioned the need for proactive identification and selection of candidate research projects. • Development of a better understanding of how transportation research can be better used to support and drive public policy is needed. This research need is more focused on the use of research results for decision making than in developing those data. This research can also include development of criteria for applying risk model output to decision making.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 81 6.1.7. Integration of Safety and Security Representatives of the AT040 committee see the integration of safety and security in risk assessments and regulations as an area requiring new research initiatives. One suggested focus of study involves the development of a framework for an integrated safety and security assessment for the shipment of all hazardous materials by all modes of transport. Current research in this area is limited. One project by Vanderbilt University (see project 43) integrates safety and security by expressing both sources of risk in monetary terms. Research by the University of Buffalo (see project 35) similarly couches risk in terms of value, allowing for easier comparison of safety and security risks. While these two methodologies appear to be expandable to other modes of transportation, both studies have, thus far, focused on truck transportation of hazmat. The AT040 committee also identified the investigation of the effects of integrating safety and security regulations as an important area for future research. Such a study would examine how current safety and security hazmat transportation regulations reinforce or conflict with one another. Current efforts in this area are limited to work by Transport Canada to develop a dangerous goods transportation policy that focuses on security and aligns with the U.S. approach (see project 162). Gap Summary • There is a belief by some interviewees that there should be a standardized approach for integrating safety and security assessments in a common framework. • Another perceived need relates to studying the interrelationships between current safety and security regulations. 6.1.8. Materials and Equipment Testing Interviewees mentioned several specific areas in which materials or equipment testing data is lacking. A representative from PHMSA’s OPS suggested that more risk-based analyses are needed of high-strength steel pipe (e.g., x80, x100, and x120). These pipes offer the benefits of being lighter, and thus cheaper to transport, and being able to operate under higher flow rates and pressures. These pipes require additional modeling data to more accurately estimate their behavior. Little research is currently being conducted in this area; although, PHMSA’s OPS is involved in efforts to evaluate the performance of high-strength steel pipelines being used for high-pressure hydrogen transportation (see projects 137 and 149). Representatives from DuPont indicated that research is needed into the standardization of hoses used to transfer hazardous materials from industry users and producers to carrier containers. While container characteristics and failure profiles have been well characterized, hose failures have not. Some shippers have internal inspection, testing, maintenance, and lifetime standards for hoses, but many do not. Development of industry-wide standards for hoses would address the uncertainty caused by the use of differing hose types and hose management procedures. DuPont suggested that implementation of hose standards may be hampered by a number of factors, including the independent nature of carriers, expense, and a lack of regulation. No research is currently being conducted in this area. IME personnel suggested that increased testing is needed for explosives that might be present at facilities associated with hazmat transportation. New research should expand the types, quantities, and locations of explosives tested in order to address common commercial explosives and their uses, as opposed to the data currently being derived from military-use testing databases. Beyond continued development of a general explosives testing database, an IME representative suggested that specific

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 82 research efforts be devoted to characterizing the behavior of packages of perforating guns. It is industry practice to assume that these devices, which are stored and shipped in packed groups, detonate in unison if any one device within the package detonates unexpectedly. A better understanding of the behavior of these packages would serve to increase the accuracy of risk analyses focused on their transportation. While IME is occasionally involved in developing explosives testing data, no recently published academic or industrial research related to hazmat transportation exists in this area. IME personnel suggested that the primary barrier to conducting this type of research is insufficient resources, in terms of both manpower and finances. A representative of the National Pipeline Safety and Operations Research Center suggested that there is a large amount of research to be done at the local level regarding the conditions of aging pipelines. Pipelines are often affected by changes in land use and construction in the decades following their burial. Cities and towns should investigate the current state of the pipeline’s cathodic protection, support base, etc., to be fully cognizant of safety risks. The interviewee suggested that this kind of research is heavily dependent on the availability of public funding. While there is a wealth of recent research regarding pipeline inspection techniques and technologies, localized pipeline inspection research is largely absent from the literature. A perceived area for future research from a representative of Vanderbilt University involves examining the implications of new energy choices and alternative fuels with regard to hazmat transportation risk. This research would include investigating how the shipment and use of energy sources developed in response to climate change affect risk levels throughout the transportation system. Recent research in this area focuses on the effects on pipeline integrity for transporting alternative fuels, such as ethanol (see projects 124, 139, 146, and 156), biogas (project 144), and biodiesel (projects 127 and 154), and on thermal and fire hazards posed by batteries and fuel cells in air cargo (see projects 85, 86, and 88). PHMSA is planning research on energetic hazardous materials that will focus on better ways to package and transport lithium batteries and high-energy capacitors (see project 115). Additionally, the FRA is investigating methods for reducing non-accident releases of ethanol during loading and unloading of tank cars (see project 95). However, investigations of truck, rail, barge, and system-wide effects from increased use of alternative energy sources remain largely unexplored in recent literature. Gap Summary • More risk-based analyses of high-strength steel pipe are needed. • Research is needed into the standardization of hoses and/or processes used to transfer hazardous materials from industry users and producers to carrier containers. • Commercial explosives require additional packaging testing research to augment the military explosives assumptions that are applied to them. • Local testing of pipeline conditions is needed as the infrastructure continues to age. This is particularly important because of the affect that changes in land use and construction can have on pipelines. • The increasing use of new and emerging alternate fuels has implications on the transportation infrastructure—from such issues as corrosion and product compatibility—and could benefit from additional research. 6.1.9. Risk Analysis and Perception Interviewees suggested several potential research concentrations that can be loosely grouped as pertaining to risk analysis or risk perception. A representative from IME suggested that quantitative risk assessments, particularly with regard to siting explosives-related transportation facilities, would be

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 83 more useful if regulators had criteria for using model output to make decisions. Research is needed into the establishment of guidelines that dictate decisions to be made given risk model output. While IME works primarily with the model IMESAFR, used for explosive risk analysis at facilities, these types of guidelines could be extended to other standard industry risk models. Representatives from the University of Kentucky suggested that there is a need for the development of a nationally accepted, chemical-based risk assessment model and management system for hazardous materials. This system would provide a chemical list and associated rating system, based on each chemical or chemical group’s properties, and prescribe management practices for their handling. Management practices would be developed with a focus on both safety and security. Development of such a system has not been addressed in recently reported research. The HM-01 research team recommended investigating how risk and vulnerabilities vary from mode to mode in hazmat transportation. Certain modes of transportation are often assumed to be inherently safer than others. If these assumptions are true, there is the potential for using lessons learned from safer modes to improve less safe modes. Such research should further consider if hazmat shipments should be reallocated given the risks associated with a particular mode of transport. Additionally, this research should include investigation into the potential for terrorist attacks for each mode and how that potential should affect shipment choices. No research projects focusing on these goals have been reported since the publication of HM-01. The AT040 committee recommended an examination of how and why public perceptions of risk in hazmat transportation change. This study would compare current perceptions of a given hazmat transportation program to previously recorded public perception data. The results of this research would improve understanding of how risk perceptions shift over time, the public’s level of knowledge of the analyzed program, and facilitate the identification of factors in determining public perception. No recent research program has attempted to address these issues. Gap Summary • There is a need for guidance or more concrete criteria related to the decision making that relies on risk model outputs. • Some interviewees suggest the need for a nationally accepted, chemical-based risk assessment model and management system for hazardous materials. This system would provide a chemical list and associated rating system, based on each chemical or chemical group’s properties, and prescribe management practices for their handling. There would need to be some consideration for the quantities of the materials involved. • Research into comparative risk assessment across modes is still needed to address issues with varying data sources, levels of accuracy, and considered elements (such as rail yards and transfer facilities). Such research could better support intermodal risk assessments. The information that could result from this research could lead to application of best practices from one mode to another, where possible. • A study of how and why public perceptions of risk in hazmat transportation change would improve understanding of how risk perceptions shift over time, the public’s level of knowledge of identified programs, and facilitate the identification of factors in determining public perception.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 84 6.1.10. Other Perceived Areas for Future Research PHMSA OPS personnel suggested that an investigation be conducted into the effects of international, state, and intrastate hazmat standards and pipeline regulations on pipeline operators. Variability in the standards and regulations governing a pipeline over its length can create operational obstacles for pipeline operators. A better understanding of these variations would facilitate alleviating some of these obstacles. While several recent projects have investigated the development of pipeline operating and testing standards (see projects 124, 133, 146, and 156), there has been no recent research focused specifically on the effects of multiple, varying regulatory schemes on the operation of a pipeline. Transport Canada, however, has recently conducted research into developing a general hazardous materials security policy that would align with U.S. policies (see project 162) and a review of the standards and regulations governing the handling of dangerous goods within Canada (see project 167). Interviewees from DuPont recommended research into gaps in training and succession planning within the hazmat transportation industry. The DuPont representatives described difficulty throughout the industry in hiring qualified senior managers and truck operators. Furthermore, the interviewees suggested that the average age of senior management is high and that many of these managers are nearing retirement, while the availability of qualified replacements is low. Recent research related to this topic has focused on producing qualified hazmat transportation workers through training, including a study of the effectiveness of hazmat training (see project 23), an investigation of post-secondary education curricula for hazmat transportation (see project 31), and an on-going industry initiative that includes the expansion of a professional development curriculum (see project 159). A University of Kentucky representative suggested that further investigation into means for better protecting the U.S. supply chain is necessary. This research would build upon a wealth of current and recent projects with direct applicability to supply chain protection, including research on risk assessment and risk assessment tools (for examples, see projects 41, 46, 71, 84, 93, 111, 187, etc.), safety and security technologies (for examples, see projects 22, 48, 112, 122, 126, 180, 182, 186, etc.), and policy development (see projects 84, 161, 162, 171, 179, and 185). There are several recent projects that have explicitly focused on supply-chain assessment and protection, including a probabilistic risk assessment of the chemical supply chain and industrial sites by DHS/TSA (see project 90). DHS/TSA has also conducted research into the development of a tool for assessing the safety and security of supply chain elements, which includes an examination of available technologies and potential operational alternatives (see project 81). ORNL’s CTA has created simulation software to support the development of a hazardous material detection system that will identify potential hazards while minimizing the effect of the screening process on the supply chain (see project 109). ORNL’s CTA has also been involved in the development of a methodology for assessing the readiness and resiliency of transportation systems, such as supply chains, to terrorist attacks (see project 110). CIRRELT has developed new graphics-based tools for hazardous material supply chain management to facilitate the simultaneous tracking of materials and their associated contracts, responsible parties, and risk transfers (see project 174). The HM-01 project team found a need for the validation of existing hazmat accident data. This effort would address the accumulation of errors into these resources that have been introduced by data entry, collection of poor-quality spatial information, and the conglomeration of data from multiple sources that were not originally focused on hazmat accidents. This research would involve developing a methodology for detecting and correcting such errors. A recently completed TRB Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Project (see project 27) sought to develop recommendations for such a methodology to improve the quality and accessibility of hazmat transportation incident information.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 85 Beyond this project, there are several recent research efforts that are less focused on building a detection and correction methodology, but may be applicable to such an effort. These projects include research by Transport Canada in which available accident information in the U.S. and Canada is reviewed (see project 167) and by CIRRELT in which multiple databases were cross-analyzed in order to facilitate hazmat accident analyses. Rail-related projects that may be useful in this field include research by the AAR that employed accident data to examine hazmat-related issues (see project 74), and work by the FRA on post-accident analysis (see project 94). Gap Summary • Exploring the effects of multiple, varying regulatory schemes on the operation of a pipeline. • There are gaps in training and succession planning within the hazmat transportation industry. • Exploring better means for protecting the U.S. supply chain can build on a wide variety of relevant projects. Given the nature of that work, the focus of this research could be on implementation; for example, on potential study area is the identification of appropriate countermeasures to address specific risks. • There is a need to validate existing hazmat accident data. Research in this area would involve developing a methodology for detecting and correcting such errors. 6.1.11. Summary Matrix Table 5. Perceived Gaps by Organization Perceived Gaps AA R Ca lif or ni a EM A D H S/ TS A a nd C SA C Ch em ic al C om pa ni es FA A FR A IM E JH U A PL N PS & O RC PH M SA /O H M PH M SA /O PS Te xa s A & M TR B - A T0 40 TR B - H M CR P U K/ KT C Va nd er bi lt Human factors implications for cargo handling systems  Best approaches for reducing risks for return hazmat shipments  Commodity flow data for emergency planning     Better understand and address rural emergency response issues  Improve communication and engagement with LEPCs  Qualified hazmat responder actions beyond initial response   Incorporating pipeline-specific response into planning and guidance  Investigate improved hazmat placarding technologies  Best practices for distribution facility risk assessment  Industrial explosion event probability data or applicable proxies  Ensuring availability of relevant local hazmat commodity flow data     State-wide commodity flow studies  Understanding temporal variations in hazmat flows   Approaches for acquisition of proprietary commodity flow data  Improved methods for estimating hazmat travel time in waterways 

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 86 Perceived Gaps AA R Ca lif or ni a EM A D H S/ TS A a nd C SA C Ch em ic al C om pa ni es FA A FR A IM E JH U A PL N PS & O RC PH M SA /O H M PH M SA /O PS Te xa s A & M TR B - A T0 40 TR B - H M CR P U K/ KT C Va nd er bi lt Improved methods for estimating economic costs of hazmat incidents  Proactive identification and selection of candidate research projects  Better understand how research can drive public policy  Standardized approach for integrating safety and security assessments  Study the interrelationships between current safety and security regulations  More risk-based analyses of high-strength steel  Standardization of hoses and/or processes for transferring hazmat  Additional packaging testing research for commercial explosives  Local testing of pipeline conditions as infrastructure ages  Alternate fuel implications on the transportation infrastructure  More guidance on decision making that relies on risk model outputs  Nationally accepted, chemical-based risk assessment model  Address issues with comparative risk assessments across modes   Study public risk perception in hazmat transportation  Explore the effects of multiple, varying regulatory schemes on pipelines   Examine the gaps in training and succession planning  Explore better means for protecting the US supply chain   Validate existing hazmat accident data   6.2. Research Overlaps As one might expect, there are some overlaps in the hazmat transportation research being conducted by the many organizations contacted during this project. This section discusses the key areas of common research. In many cases, it is not possible to determine whether projects that cover the same or similar topics overlap each other in scope or whether they are complementary based on the information that the project team was able to obtain. Entities interested in research in these areas should follow up with the research organizations, using the contact information provided in Table 2, to determine the extent of overlap or complement between efforts and explore collaboration, if appropriate. Appendix B contains a cross-referenced list of all of the overlaps the project team identified. One general area of overlap is “new technologies.” Many identified projects are focused on developing or enhancing new or emerging technologies that have the potential to improve the safety or security of hazardous materials transportation. One study in particular, TRB’s HM-04, developed a list of near- and

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 87 long-term technologies that hold particular promise. For some of the other new technology projects, see HM-04’s entry in Appendix B (project 22). 6.2.1. Incident Data Analysis and Availability Multiple organizations are involved in research efforts to analyze hazardous materials transportation incidents data and to create methodologies to predict or prevent future incidents. One current TRB project is researching incident data for root cause analysis, including estimating the underreporting of serious incidents (see project 27). Texas A&M is using existing accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate the frequency of hazmat transportation incidents (see project 15), and a project by CIRRELT is performing a cross-analysis of accidents using multiple databases (see project 177). The Association of American Railroads (AAR) is conducting research projects to study hazmat releases and the impacts of potentially contributing factors in accident (see project 74) and non-accident (see projects 59 and 76) releases. Railroad accident information is also being addressed by the FRA, which is developing data through a post-accident evaluation project (see project 94). 6.2.2. Commodity Flow Data Analysis and Availability Several recent projects have been undertaken to address the quality and availability of hazmat commodity flow data. One TRB project is providing recommendations and guidelines for collecting and analyzing hazmat commodity flow data to make the information more readily available for local decision makers, responders, and regulators (see project 26). A similar Texas A&M study focused on state and sub-state hazmat movements in Texas, but is potentially applicable to hazmat management and research efforts in other states (see project 16). Research through the National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) has also investigated sub-national commodity flows (see project 25). While the NCFRP looks more broadly at all freight commodities, it does specifically consider hazardous materials and the hazmat commodity flow work done through TRB (see project 26). 6.2.3. Pipelines Because the U.S. pipeline network stretches over one million miles, pipeline maintenance and protection are critical hazmat transportation safety issues. One specific area of concern for pipelines is the ability to protect pipelines from damage caused by third parties, through deliberate attack or from construction activities near the pipelines. Research sponsored by the National Pipeline Safety and Operations Research Center (NPSORC) is focused on improving detection techniques for underground pipes. This work is similar to a PHMSA-sponsored research project investigating improvements in acoustic-based detection and alerting systems (see projects 121 and 132). An additional PHMSA study on pipeline encroachment detection and alerting involves the development of a seismic sensor system to prevent potential strikes (see project 123). Several research projects have recently been undertaken that involve the development of tools to remotely monitor pipelines and assess signs of cracks, dents, corrosion or leaks. Projects include research on pipelines that carry specific commodities, such as hydrocarbons (see projects 122 and 140) and ethanol (see project 156), and determine the potential for new technologies to be used with these materials. An example of this type of research is the PHMSA OPS soft crack assessor project that has developed tools for assessing cracks in large-diameter natural gas and carbon dioxide pipelines (see projects 130 and 131). Additional pipeline monitoring projects that are less specifically focused on a given commodity include development of a combined pipeline inspection and cleaning tool (see project 141), dent assessment tools (see projects 129 and 143), a fluidized sensor system (see project 150), and various non-destructive pipeline inspection methods (see projects 135 and 136) by PHMSA’s Office of

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 88 Pipeline Safety (OPS). NPSORC is conducting similar monitoring and detection research including investigations of coastline and offshore pipelines (see project 8), leak detection using fluid transport technologies (see project 9), non-destructive monitoring techniques (see project 10), and the use of remote sensors (see project 13). Improvements in construction methods and investigations into the compatibility of construction materials with specific commodities have also been a focus of pipeline research in recent years. Projects in this field include an examination of the pipeline construction and performance for transporting ethanol (see projects 124, 146, and 156), biodiesel (see project 127), high-pressure gaseous hydrogen (see projects 128, 137, and 149), and biomethane (see project 144). 6.2.4. Risk and Effects of Terrorism Following the large-scale terrorist events of the past decade, there is increased research regarding the risk of a terrorist attack against the transportation network. A major portion of this research focuses on risk assessments and related data development. DHS has conducted a number of projects in this area, including those involving transportation and industrial infrastructure (see projects 80, 81, 83, and 84) and modeling chemical releases from bulk packages (see projects 79 and 82). IME has developed a tool for addressing explosives risks on a facility-level (see project 187), while research from Vanderbilt University has developed a methodology for addressing terrorism risks on a regional scale (see project 46). Transport Canada has recently undertaken a wide-ranging security-based risk assessment for truck and rail transportation of hazardous materials within Canada that is soon to be declassified (see project 161). Recent security risk assessment research has also resulted in the development of software tools including ORNL Center for Transportation Analysis’ (CTA) GeoSAT, which helps prepare security managers and first responders for events in high-threat urban areas (see project 108), and AAR’s Rail Corridor Risk Management System which is used by rail operators and regulators to assess security and safety risks for shipments (see project 71). Multiple recent security-related projects have focused on developing tools to provide first responders, operators, law enforcement, and other stakeholders the ability to track hazardous materials in real time. The Kentucky Transportation Center (KTC) is conducting research to support the TSA’s tracking of truck- based hazardous materials shipments (see project 41) as well as investigating tracking maritime shipments (see project 42). Research by ORNL’s CTA focuses specifically on tracking and assessing threats from barge shipments (see project 111), while DuPont is investigating GPS-tracking of rail shipments (see project 182). Recent work by the Institute of Makers of Explosives similarly focuses on real-time truck shipment tracking (see project 186). Security-related hazmat transportation research has also included research projects focusing on the detection of terrorist activity and materials in recent years. One such project by ORNL’s CTA involves the development of a system to detect nuclear and other hazardous materials at ports of entry within the U.S. (see project 109). A project by CREATE involves developing allocation strategies for nuclear detection devices within urban areas (see project 86). Similar work by Texas A&M has developed a methodology for the placement of threat detectors and interception units within a regional network (see project 14). Infrastructure resiliency has been another focus of recent security-related hazmat transportation research. Organizations such as ORNL’s CTA, CREATE, and PHMSA are investigating the resiliency of the transportation network (see projects 3, 4, and 110) and the ability of communities (see project 16) to quickly recover from an attack.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 89 6.2.5. Container Improvement Many organizations are researching potential improvements in container design and materials. While the majority of these projects examine individual components or materials of a container, all of this research is geared towards creating a safer, more effective, and more reliable vessel for hazardous materials transportation. The University of Illinois is developing a two-phased modeling approach to tank car design that considers (a) safety improvements in light of weight trade-offs and (b) the hazards posed by specific chemicals while accounting for the costs associated with protecting against those hazards (see project 39). Transport Canada is researching the behavior of foam used for thermal protection of tank cars and the thermal emissivity and absorptivity of rolled tank car steel and liquid propane when involved in a fire (see projects 170 and 173). FMCSA is investigating the cause of stress corrosion cracks and pinhole leaks in nurse tanks (see projects 90 and 92, respectively). FMCSA is also working with PHMSA and NHTSA to determine potential tank car vehicle improvements to reduce tank car rollovers (see project 113). A wealth of railcar hazmat research has been conducted through the AAR in recent years. The AAR Advanced Tank Car Collaborative Research Program is a program that seeks to develop better designs, standards and regulations for tank cars carrying toxic inhalation hazard commodities (see project 70). Beyond this comprehensive effort, the AAR has been involved in a number of research projects investigating specific tank car materials or components, including tank car steels (see projects 51, 52, and 73); tank car markings (see projects 49 and 53); and tank car parts, such as outlets (see project 50), valves and relief devices (see projects 55, 60, 61, 67, 68, and 69), joints (see project 62), manways (see projects 63, 65, and 66), and fasteners (see project 64). The AAR has also been involved in developing data that may be useful to researchers in the field of tank car design, including operating environment information (see project 72), accident (see project 74) and non-accident (see projects 59 and 76) event data, inspection results (see project 75), and fire-related safety testing results (see project 77). Additionally, AAR has performed research into tank car maintenance (see project 54), non-destructive evaluation (see project 56), and life extension (see project 58). In recent years, there have also been projects that examine the safety of containers beyond highway and rail tank cars. For example, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is developing a technical basis to ensure the integrity of spent fuel transport casks during severe accidents (see project 107). Composite cylinders have also been examined in several projects, including two by PHMSA to enhance in-service testing of the cylinders ( see projects 114 and 119) and a project by Transport Canada to review current regulations regarding cylinder specifications (see project 171). 6.2.6. Human Factors, Training, and Educational Outreach The training of transportation workers is critical to the safety of hazardous materials transportation. Several general hazmat training projects have been conducted in recent years. One project by TRB will develop a guide for evaluating the effectiveness of training methods used to inform hazmat employees of safety and security requirements (see project 23). Another TRB project will develop a curriculum that will address knowledge, skills, and abilities needed by the public and private sectors for safe transportation (see project 31). A project from the Council on the Safe Transportation of Hazardous Articles similarly seeks to develop training curricula for hazmat professionals as well as improving public awareness of the industry and strengthening partnerships between government and industry organizations (see project 159).

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 90 Reducing cargo tank incidents and rollovers has been the focus of several recent hazmat training projects. For example, the FMCSA is examining the potential benefits to cargo tank safety from public outreach in the form of dissemination of an informational video (see project 89). Two projects specifically focus on cargo tank rollovers. In one such project, TRB is examining the effect of human factors that contribute to cargo tank truck rollovers and potential operating practices that can be employed to address these factors (see project 32). The other project, carried out by PHMSA’s Office of Hazardous Materials Safety (OHM), NHTSA, and FMCSA, is examining a wide array of options for reducing rollovers, including driver training, but extending to the entire vehicle system (see project 113). The reduction of non-accident releases through training has been a focus of recent industrial research. DuPont is involved in two such initiatives, including the establishment of best practices to reduce leaks and secure liquid hazmat (see project 183) and development of a standardized program for training and certification for loading and unloading operators (see project 184). The AAR, meanwhile, is conducting a broad-scope investigation on how to best address non-accident releases, including through the use of training efforts (see project 77). 6.2.7. Research Needs and State of the Practice TRB is sponsoring two studies that are examining the current state of hazardous materials research; one is specifically focused on risk assessment practices, while the other is investigating general hazmat transportation research and research needs (see projects 28 and 21, respectively). A similar study of current research and needs is being conducted by PHMSA to support the establishment of the agency’s research and development program (see project 120). Transport Canada is investigating and drafting an issue brief on existing research and risk analysis work, knowledge gaps, and recommendations on areas that could benefit from further research (see projects 167 and 172). The Dangerous Goods Directorate of Transport Canada is also working to collect and organize hazmat transportation research results to make this information more readily available and to research staff and other public and private stakeholders (see project 165). 6.2.8. Transportation of Alternative Energy Sources The relatively recent focus on the use of alternative fuel and power sources has led to a number of research projects focusing on the transportation of these resources. One area of focus in this field is the effects on pipeline integrity for transporting alternative fuels, such as ethanol (see projects 124, 139, 146, and 156), biogas (see project 144), and biodiesel (see projects 127 and 154), all of which represent projects undertaken by PHMSA’s Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS). The reduction of non-accident releases of ethanol during loading and unloading of tank cars has been a research focus for the FRA (see project 95). The FAA has investigated thermal and fire hazards posed by batteries and fuel cells in air cargo (see projects 85, 86, and 88) and PHMSA’s OHM has examined improvements to packaging and operational practices for transporting lithium batteries and high-energy capacitors (see project 115). 6.2.9. Economic Effects of Hazardous Materials Transportation Several recent projects have evaluated risk and risk-reduction strategies in terms of monetary value in order to create a standard basis for comparing dissimilar risks or to optimize costs and benefits. A Vanderbilt University study investigates hazmat transportation risk analysis through the development of an all-hazards risk management approach that expresses risk in terms of monetary value (see project 43). By couching risk in economic terms, the methodology facilitates the consideration of safety and security risks in concert. A University of Buffalo study uses a similar economic approach to examine the safety and security risks involved in route selection for hazardous materials (see project 35). A CIRRELT

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 91 study also investigates tactical planning using cost terms, with a focus on rail transportation (see project 176). A cost-based approach for evaluating rail shipment risks is also being developed by The University of Illinois, which is seeking to incorporate a cost-benefit analysis into tank car safety design improvements (see project 39). Two projects from CREATE focus on economic impacts related to hazmat transportation and terrorism, including the development of a model for tracking economic effects of a terrorist attack throughout the national economy (see project 3) and an optimal cost-benefit approach to placing nuclear detection equipment throughout transportation networks (see project 2). 6.3. Research Needs The project team reviewed the perceived and remaining needs documented in Section 6.1 and incorporated many of them into a defined need statement. Therefore, there is a strong correlation between the research needs and the perceived needs in Section 6.1. The project team drew on its expertise and the interviews to augment some of the research needs to make them broader (and potentially more applicable to more stakeholders) and determined that others were not good candidates for further consideration. For example, lithium battery research was mentioned as a need, but there has been a lot of research in this area already. It is possible that more focused research on lithium batteries may be warranted in the future as the power that these batteries can produce increases from technical advances. Ultimately, the identified research needs were reconstituted into research project statements and prioritized using the approved prioritization framework as part of Task 9. These candidate research project statements are presented in this section, organized by general area. 6.3.1. Cargo Packaging and Handling 6.3.1.1. Identifying Sources and Types of Undeclared Hazmat The shipment of hazardous materials without declaring them as such as following the federal requirements for their safe packaging and transportation is a recognized concern among carriers and regulators alike. The belief is that a large number of these shipments originate from small businesses and consumers that are returning merchandise. These ‘undeclared’ shipments are comingled with mainstream shipments and carrier personnel are unaware of the special handling and shipping requirements that are appropriate. The volume and reporting rates of these undeclared shipments is currently not well known. The objective of this project is to develop a better understanding of the types of materials and the types of businesses that are more likely to offer an undeclared shipment for transportation and to estimate the magnitude of the problem. In addition, approaches to obtain better estimates for the volume and reporting rates should be suggested. A second phase for this research is to engage with individuals and organizations in the key industry segments for undeclared shipments and to identify candidate strategies for reducing the number of these shipments, impediments to their implementation, and suggested approaches for addressing them. Estimated project budget: $200,000

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 92 6.3.1.2. Human Factors Issues for Hazardous Cargo Handling Human factors are an important element in the transportation of hazardous materials. As technology advances allow for greater use of automated and improved mechanical systems, there are concerns about the impacts of these changes on the current approaches and procedures for hazmat handling. As shipment volumes increase, are the current systems able to handle the adjustments necessary to provide a consistent level of safety and security? The screening of non- bulk hazmat for proper packaging and security issues is just one area where the implications of these changes might be particularly pronounced, especially for transportation by air. For some segments of the industry, there is more human interaction with individual packages than in other segments; for example, passenger carriers vs. cargo-only carriers. In some cases, better clarity on responsibilities may be appropriate, such as better defining the carrier responsibility for discovering undeclared hazmat shipments. The objective of this project is to (a) identify current changes in hazmat transportation cargo handling systems and those probable changes that can be expected over the next five to ten years, (b) identify the specific areas (such as air package screening) that are particularly sensitive to these changes, (c) identify the likely impacts from these changes, and (d) develop and describe candidate options for addressing them. Training requirements, handling methods and locations, monitoring and oversight, and assigned responsibility may all be important. Estimated project budget: $250,000 6.3.2. Emergency Planning and Response 6.3.2.1. Improving Local Emergency Planning Committees Some hazardous materials incidents occur far outside of a major city, where smaller communities may not be as adequately prepared to manage these incidents. Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) serve a valuable role, by coordinating members of government, industry, and first responders to prepare for a hazardous materials incident. This project will provide a review of current LEPC efforts and examine why some LEPCs are more successful than others, particularly with respect to hazardous materials and differentiating between urban LEPCs and those in non-urban areas. The objective of this is to determine strategies to strengthen a LEPC in a community. Specific questions involve (a) determining what keeps an LEPC active and functional; (b) determining why individual members remain in the LEPC or leave the committee; and (c) exploring the feasibility of a nationwide database of LEPC members, to track membership and facilitate communication and coordination across various LEPCs. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.2.2. Initial Actions by Hazmat First Responders Providing responders with fast and accurate information is critical in order to safely assess and address any hazmat incident. Hazmat responders would benefit from a comprehensive guidebook that includes all types of incidents and all possible types of hazardous materials. This material should be arranged in a hierarchical manner, such that the most-likely scenarios will be easily available.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 93 This guidebook should include, but not be limited to, information on biological, chemical, and infectious substances and would address specific actions for qualified hazmat responders, in addition to first responders. Because of the urgency of hazmat incidents, the guidebook should be as concise as possible, without sacrificing the quality and thoroughness of the information presented. This guidebook will also be a critical tool for responders to train and prepare for any Hazmat incident. Estimated project budget: $300,000 6.3.2.3. Rural Hazmat Emergency Response With the limited resources available to many rural emergency response organizations, there is a need to better understand the unique issues they face and to identify best practices for addressing them related to hazmat response. One specific issue is the difference in how all-volunteer vs. fully- funded agencies approach assessing hazmat risks and emergency planning. Another is how long- term (i.e., multiple-days to a week) response efforts might be sustained in rural environments given volunteer response forces, mutual aid agreements, and potentially scarce equipment resources. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.2.4. Systematic Approach for the Development and Use of Hazmat Commodity Flow Data in Emergency Response Planning The ability of jurisdictions to develop a comprehensive emergency response plan is dependent, in part, upon its ability to understand the hazardous materials being transported through its region of authority. Adequate hazardous material commodity flow information is often not available to emergency planners, particularly at the local level. Gathering commodity flow data at a local level is often precluded by a lack of funding, particularly in rural areas, and can result in the use of inconsistent methodologies across jurisdictions, making aggregation or larger comparisons of the data difficult. Once collected or made available to planners, these data may not be fully utilized if the planning committee is not familiar with the processes and logistics associated with hazmat transportation. The objective of this research is to investigate the potential for developing standardized state-wide hazmat commodity flow information to meet the needs of local emergency planners. Researchers should then recommend methods for disseminating this data and educating local response planners on its appropriate incorporation into a comprehensive emergency response plan. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.2.5. Improved Hazmat Placarding Technologies Both PHMSA’s ongoing HM-ACCESS initiative and the HMCRP’s HM-05, Evaluation of the Use of Electronic Shipping Papers for Hazardous Materials Shipments, are considering the potential to allow for electronic shipping papers to be used in place of hard-copy shipping papers. There are expected benefits to emergency responders and to enforcement personnel that accrue from easier access to material, quantity, and packaging information, particularly in situations (inaccessible truck cabs, for example) where a physical shipping paper would be unavailable. In addition, there are some potential concerns about availability of the electronic information, depending on the adopted technology.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 94 While the information on a shipping paper can better inform emergency response actions, the initial assessment of the type of materials involved in an incident is currently obtained from the hazmat placards on the outside of the vehicle, tank car, cargo tank, etc. This project will leverage the work already completed in HM-ACCESS and HM-05 to explore the potential for adopting alternate technologies only for placarding, the benefits that would be expected, technical and operational issues that might exist, and recommended paths forward. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.3. Facility Risk Assessment 6.3.3.1. Distribution Facility Risk Assessment While risk assessment for facilities has been an area of research and implementation for a long time, often centered on chemical process safety, there is a need for additional research or collection of best practices for distribution facility risk assessment. A key focus would be on loading and unloading and the movement of raw materials into the facility and the shipment of product from the facility to the next customer in the supply chain. Transloading operations are an important element to address in the risk assessment. This project can also address the sometimes-unclear jurisdictional authority for these facilities and how that affects safety. Other issues to consider are the changing environment around facilities and the implications of changes in the types of materials and equipment that are present at the facilities over time. Estimated project budget: $300,000 6.3.4. Commodity Flow Data 6.3.4.1. Addressing Acquisition of Proprietary Hazmat Commodity Flow Data There is a continuing desire by many organizations, including federal, state, and local governments, to gain access to more detailed information on the number of shipments and quantity shipped of various types of materials. At the federal level, the models that drive risk assessments depend on this information to better inform policy decisions and the allocation of resources into risk reduction measures, including regulations, grants, and training. At the local level, this information could better support emergency planning efforts to align capabilities with the nature and locations of these movements. The objective of this project is to (a) document the current impediments to obtaining hazardous materials commodity flow data from industry and (b) to identify potential approaches for making commodity and shipment data available to risk managers, while recognizing and addressing the valid concerns from industry. Estimated project budget: $150,000 6.3.4.2. Assessing the Impact of Global Warming on Hazmat Commodity Flow This project is a scoping study to better understand the climate change-related drivers that could influence hazmat flow patterns and the extent of their impact, including on transportation risk and emergency response. The objective is to (a) summarize what is known about anticipated climate change in the US on a regional basis, with regard to temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and episodic events, (b) describe how various energy and other industrial process choices impact hazmat

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 95 distribution patterns (e.g., commodity type, volume, mode, origin-destination pair), and (c) define plausible climate change and related energy and industrial process choice scenarios over the coming decade, and demonstrate how these would impact hazmat commodity flow patterns.1 6.3.5. Hazmat Release Consequences 6.3.5.1. Travel Times of Hazmat in Waterways Hazardous materials releases can occur in, or in close proximity to, a waterway that could carry the released material for great distances. Little research has been conducted to determine the travel time of various materials through waterways. Accurate estimates of travel time would facilitate emergency planning for communities located downstream from potential hazards, such as transport pipelines and vessel locations. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology for determining the downstream travel time of various chemicals or groups of chemicals for given stream conditions. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.5.2. Estimating the Costs of Hazmat Incidents The costs of hazardous materials incidents often reach in to the millions of dollars, but improvements are needed to more accurately determine the costs of these incidents. This project will develop an approach for estimating the costs of a hazardous materials incident. This research should include investigation into available data sources and current best practices for estimating loss of life, damages to property, liability, long-term cleanup costs, etc. The recommended approach should account for accessibility of necessary inputs in order to allow widespread utilization of the approach by practitioners. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.6. Hazmat Transportation Research 6.3.6.1. Impact of Hazmat Transportation Research on Public Policy There is a need for research on how hazmat transportation research could be better used to drive public policy. Where national-level risk assessments are extremely useful in making decisions between different approaches to risk management or in understanding the relative risks of different types of hazmat operations, they are generally applied at a tactical level. This research project would explore the application of risk assessment, and hazmat transportation research in general, to public policy strategy. What are the appropriate measures to consider? How can the interplay between safety/security and economic viability and international competitiveness be addressed? Should there be consideration of the concept of acceptable risk as we explore measures to address the risks of different elements of the hazmat supply chain? Estimated project budget: $150,000 1 This project description is taken largely from a submittal from the interviewee proposing the need to the HMCRP for funding consideration.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 96 6.3.7. Materials and Equipment Testing 6.3.7.1. Develop Guidelines for Testing, Maintaining, and Operating Chemical Transfer Hoses While information on the characteristics and failure statistics of bulk hazmat containers are widely available and utilized, similar information on the hoses used to transfer materials to and from these containers is not. Likewise, industry standards for the inspection, testing, maintenance, and retirement of these hoses do not exist. Many hazmat producers and carriers have not developed internal standards for such practices, while methods among those that have vary from organization to organization. The uncertainty caused by the use of differing hose types and hose management procedures presents an obstacle to holistic risk assessment and management for both shipper and carrier organizations. The objective of this research is to produce a guidance document that will inform drivers/operators, shipper/carrier maintenance personnel, and other stakeholders of the current successful practices for designing, selecting, testing, maintaining, and operating chemical transfer hoses.2 Estimated project budget: $300,000 6.3.7.2. Commercial Explosives Testing Current data used in the modeling of explosives risks is largely derived from military test data. These data represent only a portion of commercially used explosive materials and were generally conducted using explosive materials in quantities much larger than commercial organizations would typically have on-hand. By augmenting currently available explosion testing data with information on a wider variety of commercial explosives, in typical quantities, more accurate estimates of explosives risks at transportation facilities and along transportation routes could be made. The objective of this research is to provide a foundation for the development of a commercial explosives database to support facility and route path risk analysis. This effort will involve investigating and reporting the types and quantities of commercial explosives commonly shipped within the US, a recommended path forward for testing, and potential avenues for funding a long-term materials testing program. Estimated project budget: $100,000 6.3.7.3. Risk-Based Analysis of High-Strength Pipeline Steel High-strength pipeline steels, such as x80, x100, and x120, offer the advantages of being both lighter and able to operate under higher flow rates and pressures than their predecessors. However, a better understanding of the controls necessary to operate pipelines under these more strenuous operating conditions, as well as more thorough modeling of the steels’ behavior in these environments, is necessary. The availability of such information would contribute to the safety of pipeline operation, the efficient allocation of pipeline risk management resources, and more clearly define acceptable operating parameters for both operators and regulators. The project will review currently available models for determining pipeline steel behavior and control characteristics to determine their applicability to high-strength steels. The objective of this project is to (a) determine the models available for modeling high-strength steel pipelines, (b) review the literature on controls 2 This research need was further developed into the project described here by members of the Research Needs Subcommittee of the TRB Hazardous Materials Transportation Committee and submitted to the HMCRP for funding consideration on behalf of the Committee.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 97 and models for steel pipe and to identify gaps, (c) document the critical differences in operation, inspection, and monitoring between high-strength steel and other types of pipe. This would include how the flow rates and pressures would affect the properties of the steel, valves, etc. and the appropriate approach/ models to establish the operating pressures. Estimated project budget: $150,000 6.3.8. Risk Analysis and Perception 6.3.8.1. Chemical-based Risk Assessment Model While the ongoing HM-12 project will document the current approaches for conducting hazardous materials transportation risk assessments, there is a desire for a nationally accepted, chemical- based risk assessment model and management system for hazardous materials transportation. This system could provide a chemical list and associated rating system, based on each chemical or chemical group’s properties, and prescribe (or suggest) management practices for their handling. There would need to be some consideration for the quantities of the materials involved. This research project will explore the feasibility and appropriateness of developing a more detailed and standard risk assessment model that includes specific consideration for different materials, quantities, modes, entity types, and operations. Of particular concern is the appropriateness of such a national model to different types of decisions, including mode and route choice, and the application of various safety or security countermeasures. This project will suggest which elements are appropriate for further consideration. In addition, and if the prior phase so indicates, the researchers will outline the framework for a national risk assessment (to support one or more decisions, as appropriate) and the next steps required for implementation. Estimated project budget: $300,000 6.3.8.2. Measuring the Potential Benefit of Hazmat Risk Mitigation Strategies There are many recent and ongoing projects that are directed at better protecting the U.S. supply chain. The types of risk-mitigation strategies encompass a wide variety of safety and security countermeasures, including mode and route choice, packaging selection, carrier selection, manufacturing and distribution locations, alternate product selection, operational changes, improved monitoring and communications, emergency response planning, and inspection procedures and frequency. This research project will develop a guidebook to help identify the appropriate countermeasures to address specific risks. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.8.3. Comparative Hazmat Risk Assessment across Modes Anecdotal evidence seems to point toward the selection of certain modes of hazmat transportation as being safer than others. This observation plays a part in shipping decisions made by a number of high-volume hazmat producers. Research into the comparative risks associated with each mode is needed to gain a better understanding of the influence of mode selection on shipment risk. Improved awareness of the sources of risks for each mode and their effect on the safety and security of shipments can lead to better shipping decisions and, potentially, mitigation of risks on a given mode through the transfer of applicable best practices and lessons learned.

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs April 17, 2012 98 The objective of this project is to investigate the effect of shipping hazmat by differing modes on the risk associated with the shipment. The project should (a) investigate data sources that can be used to compare aggregate mode safety and security; (b) investigate data sources that would allow for case studies of the influence of mode selection on the risk presented by specific commodities, (c) determine the factors that influence any variation that is observed across the modes; (d) determine the potential for positive influences to be applied to less-safe modes; and (e) discuss the potential for these results to inform mode choice decision at national and corporate levels. Estimated project budget: $300,000 6.3.8.4. Changes in Public Perception of Risk in Hazmat [Submitted as a research problem statement by AT040] One of the critical constraints affecting public policies governing the transport of hazardous materials is derived from the manner in which the public understands the associated risks. Perceived risks feed directly into the political process, limiting the array of feasible policy actions in ways that depart from purely technical risk management strategies. This project would collect new survey data for an existing hazmat transportation program that has historical data on public risk perceptions prior to, and during the start of shipments. The new data would be compared to the large archive of existing public opinion research. The analysis would further our general knowledge how public risk perception evolves over time with increased experience; it would permit comparison of public knowledge of the transport program after ten years of nearly accident-free operation; and it would permit analysis of the relative role of familiarity, knowledge, and social factors in explaining changes in risk perceptions of hazardous materials transport. The objective is to understand the ways that people's perceptions of hazard materials transportation risk are formed and how they change over time. The products of this research project would include (a) an updated public survey; (b) statistical analysis of the survey results and; (c) comparison of the results with responses from previous surveys along with relevant conclusions about the factors contributing to measured changes in perceptions. Estimated project budget: $200,000 6.3.9. Other Research Needs 6.3.9.1. Effects of Multiple Regulatory Schemes on Pipeline Operations Variability in the standards and regulations governing a pipeline over its length can create operational obstacles for pipeline operators. While recent efforts have been made to set cross- border operating pressure standards on an international level, differences in regulations at a state and local level still present operational issues for pipeline operators. For example, a given state may have more stringent regulations than the federal government, or local government regulations may differ from those of the larger state. The purpose of this project is to (a) identify significant variations in pipeline regulation on a local, state, and national scale and determine where these regulations are in conflict; (b) identify factors leading to the variations; (c) determine the potential for developing standard operating guidelines