National Academies Press: OpenBook

Exoplanet Science Strategy (2018)

Chapter: Front Matter

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25187.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25187.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25187.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25187.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25187.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Exoplanet Science Strategy Committee on Exoplanet Science Strategy Space Studies Board Board on Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25187 Cover design by Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Exoplanet Science Strategy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25187. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON EXOPLANET SCIENCE STRATEGY DAVID CHARBONNEAU, NAS,1 Harvard University, Co-Chair B. SCOTT GAUDI, Ohio State University, Co-Chair FABIENNE A. BASTIEN, Pennsylvania State University JACOB BEAN, University of Chicago JUSTIN R. CREPP, University of Notre Dame ELIZA KEMPTON, University of Maryland CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, The George Washington University BRUCE A. MACINTOSH, Stanford University DIMITRI P. MAWET, California Institute of Technology VICTORIA S. MEADOWS, University of Washington RUTH MURRAY-CLAY, University of California, Santa Cruz EVGENYA L. SHKOLNIK, Arizona State University IGNAS SNELLEN, Leiden University ALYCIA J. WEINBERGER, Carnegie Institution of Washington Staff DAVID B. LANG, Senior Program Officer, Study Director (until May 2018) NATHAN J. BOLL, Associate Program Officer, Study Director (after May 2018) ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer CHRISTOPHER J. JONES, Program Officer DIONNA WISE, Program Coordinator LAURA J. CUMMINGS, Berkner Space Policy Intern MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board (until April 2018) RICHARD ROWBERG, Interim Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board (April 2018 through July 2018) COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board (after July 2018) JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

SPACE STUDIES BOARD FIONA A. HARRISON, NAS,1 California Institute of Technology, Chair JAMES H. CROCKER, NAE,2 Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (Retired), Vice Chair GREGORY P. ASNER, NAS, Carnegie Institution for Science JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant ADAM BURROWS, NAS, Princeton University MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates, Inc. JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research VICTORIA HAMILTON, Southwest Research Institute CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, The George Washington University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROSALY M. C. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, Universities Space Research Association DAVID J. MCCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego ERIKA B WAGNER, Blue Origin, LLC PAUL D. WOOSTER, Space Exploration Technologies EDWARD L. WRIGHT, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles Staff MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (until April 2018) RICHARD ROWBERG, Interim Director (April 2018 through July 2018) COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director (after July 2018) CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator (until June 2018) TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Associate (until August 2018) 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY BARBARA V. JACAK, NAS,1 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Chair ABRAHAM LOEB, Harvard University, Vice Chair LOUIS F. DIMAURO, The Ohio State University FRANCIS J. DISALVO, NAS, Cornell University NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University DANIEL S. FISHER, NAS, Stanford University WENDY L. FREEDMAN, NAS, University of Chicago TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, NAS, Johns Hopkins University WENDELL T. HILL III, University of Maryland ALAN HURD, Los Alamos National Laboratory BARBARA A. JONES, IBM Almaden Research Center ANDREW J. LANKFORD, University of California, Irvine NERGIS MAVALVALA, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology LYMAN A. PAGE, JR., NAS, Princeton University STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California, Santa Cruz Staff JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director DONALD SHAPIRO, Senior Scholar CHRISTOPHER J. JONES, Program Officer NEERAJ GORKHALY, Associate Program Officer HENRY KO, Research Associate LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Preface The NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017 directed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to engage the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in the development of a science strategy for the study and exploration of extrasolar planets in preparation for, and as an input to, the upcoming decadal surveys in astronomy and astrophysics and in planetary science. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) then enlisted the Space Studies Board (SSB) and the Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) to establish the Committee on Exoplanet Science Strategy. This committee was charged with surveying the status of the field and outlining key scientific questions for future research, as well as identifying opportunities for coordination with international, commercial, and not-for-profit partners. The complete statement of task is reprinted in Appendix A. To address its task, the committee convened three in-person meetings and numerous teleconferences during its work from December 2017 through August 2018. The meetings included extensive conversations with the exoplanet science community, including leadership from NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF), and featured presentations from a broad range of stakeholders, including mission scientists, individual investigators, international representatives, and philanthropic organizations. In addition, the committee issued a broad call for white papers that was targeted at the astronomy community, but open to anyone who wished to provide input to the study process. The complete white paper call and a list of the submitted white papers are reprinted in Appendix B. The full text of the submitted white papers is also available on the committee’s website. Throughout this process, the committee coordinated its work with the concurrent National Academies Committee on the State of the Science of Astrobiology. The committee would like to thank the many generous individuals throughout the exoplanet science community and its supporting institutions who contributed to the study process through presentations, written input, and discussions. A special thanks goes to the staff from the National Academies: David Lang, Nathan Boll, Chris Jones, Art Charo, Dionna Wise, Jim Lancaster, Richard Rowberg, Colleen Hartman, and former SSB director Michael Moloney. Dave Charbonneau and Scott Gaudi, Co-Chairs Committee on Exoplanet Science Strategy PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Donna G. Blackmond, NAE,1 Scripps Research Institute, Debra Fischer, Yale University, Lynne Hillenbrand, California Institute of Technology, Lisa Kaltenegger, Cornell University, John C. Mather, NAS,2 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Sara Seager, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, David Spergel, NAS, Princeton University Christopher Stark, Space Telescope Science Institute. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia J. Rieke, NAS, University of Arizona. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

Contents SUMMARY S-1 1 SCIENTIFIC GOALS 1-1 2 THE STATE OF THE FIELD OF EXOPLANETS 2-1 Methods of Detecting and Characterizing Exoplanets: Applications, Biases, and Limitations 2-1 Radial Velocity 2-3 Transits 2-3 Direct Imaging 2-4 Microlensing 2-5 Astrometry 2-5 What Has Been Learned About Exoplanets in the Past 30 Years? 2-6 The Demographics of Exoplanets 2-6 Exoplanet Atmospheres and Interiors 2-14 The Search for Life on Exoplanets 2-20 References 2-26 3 OUTLINING THE EXOPLANET SCIENCE STRATEGY 3-1 Characterizing Planets and Planetary Systems 3-1 Toward a More Complete Statistical Census of Exoplanets 3-3 Characterizing the Atmospheres and Interiors of a Diversity of Exoplanets 3-5 The Search for Life 3-10 Understanding the Factors That Affect Habitability and How to Measure Them 3-11 Biosignatures 3-16 Discovering Potentially Habitable Planets and Searching for Life on Them 3-18 References 3-20 4 IMPLEMENTING THE EXOPLANET SCIENCE STRATEGY 4-1 Expanding the Statistical Census of Exoplanets 4-1 The Case for Imaging 4-4 Ground-Based Studies 4-6 Space-Based Studies 4-10 Opportunities to Characterize Planets Through Transits 4-21 Planet Discoveries Through Transits 4-21 Atmospheric Characterization Through Transit Spectroscopy 4-23 Exoplanet Masses 4-29 Radial Velocities 4-30 Transit Timing Variations 4-34 Astrometry 4-35 The Need for Detailed Stellar Characterization 4-35 Connecting the Exoplanet and Stellar Astrophysics Communities 4-35 Planet Formation 4-41 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiii

Theory of Exoplanet Evolution, Interiors, Surfaces, and Atmospheres 4-45 Specific Scientific Challenges in the Theory of Exoplanets 4-46 Overarching Challenges 4-49 Astrobiology 4-51 Observations and Studies to Support the Search for Habitable Environments and Life 4-51 Mechanisms to Achieve Interdisciplinarity 4-53 Reducing Barriers to Scientific Excellence 4-55 Equity and Inclusion 4-55 Harrassment 4-56 Areas Needing Further Research 4-57 Decadal Survey Endorsement 4-58 References 4-58 5 OPPORTUNITIES FOR COORDINATION BETWEEN ORGANIZATIONS AND FOR COOPERATON WITH INDUSTRIAL AND INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS 5-1 6 TIMELINE FOR THE EXOPLANET SCIENCE STRATEGY 6-1 Near-Term Activities 6-1 Medium-Term Activities 6-2 Long-Term Activities 6-3 Lynx 6-3 OST 6-3 HabEx and LUVOIR 6-4 The Journey Ahead 6-6 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task A-1 B White Papers B-1 C Exoplanet Detection Methods C-1 D Biosignature Table D-1 E Committee and Staff Biographical Information E-1 F Acronyms F-1 G Glossary G-1 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiv

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Exoplanet Science Strategy Get This Book
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The past decade has delivered remarkable discoveries in the study of exoplanets. Hand-in-hand with these advances, a theoretical understanding of the myriad of processes that dictate the formation and evolution of planets has matured, spurred on by the avalanche of unexpected discoveries. Appreciation of the factors that make a planet hospitable to life has grown in sophistication, as has understanding of the context for biosignatures, the remotely detectable aspects of a planet’s atmosphere or surface that reveal the presence of life.

Exoplanet Science Strategy highlights strategic priorities for large, coordinated efforts that will support the scientific goals of the broad exoplanet science community. This report outlines a strategic plan that will answer lingering questions through a combination of large, ambitious community-supported efforts and support for diverse, creative, community-driven investigator research.

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