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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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A DECADAL SURVEY
OF THE SOCIAL AND
BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

A Research Agenda for
Advancing Intelligence Analysis

Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences
for Applications to National Security

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Contract No. 2014-14041100003-009. Support for the work of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences is provided primarily by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Award No. BCS-1729167). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-48761-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-48761-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 2019936260
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25335

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Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25335.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

PAUL R. SACKETT (Chair), Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota

GARY G. BERNTSON, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University

KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University

NOSHIR S. CONTRACTOR, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, School of Communications, and the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

NANCY J. COOKE, The Polytechnic School, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University

BARBARA ANNE DOSHER (NAS), Department of Cognitive Science, University of California, Irvine

JEFFREY C. JOHNSON, Department of Anthropology, University of Florida

SALLIE KELLER, Social and Decision Analytics Division, Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia

DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science and Engineering, San Francisco State University

CARMEN MEDINA, MedinAnalytics, LLC

FRAN P. MOORE, The Financial Systemic Analysis and Resilience Center

JONATHAN D. MORENO (NAM), Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania

JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan

JEFFREY W. TALIAFERRO, Department of Political Science, Tufts University

GREGORY F. TREVERTON, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, School of International Relations, University of Southern California

JEREMY M. WOLFE, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director

ALEXANDRA BEATTY (from March 2017), Senior Program Officer

JULIE ANNE SCHUCK, Program Officer

ELIZABETH TOWNSEND (until March 2018), Research Associate

RENÉE L. WILSON GAINES (until June 2018), Senior Program Assistant

THELMA COX, Program Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES

SUSAN T. FISKE (Chair), Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

JOHN BAUGH, Department of Arts & Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis

LAURA L. CARSTENSEN, Department of Psychology, Stanford University

JUDY DUBNO, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina

JENNIFER EBERHARDT, Department of Psychology, Stanford University

ROBERT L. GOLDSTONE, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University

DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University

NANCY G. KANWISHER, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JANICE KIECOLT-GLASER, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University College of Medicine

BILL C. MAURER, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine

STEVEN E. PETERSEN, Department of Neurology and Neurological Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine

DANA M. SMALL, Department of Psychiatry, Yale Medical School

TIMOTHY J. STRAUMAN, Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University

JEREMY M. WOLFE, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School

BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Director

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

Preface

The Intelligence Community (IC) is no stranger to the valuable contributions made by research in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) to the work of intelligence analysis. Likewise, researchers in many SBS disciplines have benefited from opportunities to work with the IC and conduct research on countless topics related to intelligence. But in an age when both technologies and national security concerns are evolving at lightning speed, the IC has recognized the critical need to more systematically take advantage of cutting-edge research from diverse SBS fields.

In this context, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) turned to the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine to explore opportunities for research from SBS disciplines to support the work of intelligence analysts and enhance national security. ODNI requested that the National Academies conduct a decadal survey that would support the IC in developing a 10-year agenda for SBS research with applications to intelligence analysis.

The National Academies had developed the decadal survey model to serve other federal agencies—including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey—by identifying research relevant to key policy objectives. This model had not previously been used to survey SBS fields or to serve an objective as broad as strengthening national security, so the process was an experiment for ODNI and the National Academies, as well as for the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×

Sciences for Applications to National Security. This report describes the results of the work of the intrepid committee—made up of experts with decades of experience in intelligence, scholars in diverse SBS fields, and several individuals with extensive experience in both worlds—that took on this challenge.

This decadal survey was made possible by the generous sponsorship of ODNI and the invaluable insight and support of Dr. David Honey, former director of science and technology and former assistant deputy director of national intelligence for science and technology. We also appreciate the tireless support of members of the ODNI staff, including Dr. Steven D. Thompson, Mr. Melvin L. Eulau, Dr. Kent Myers, and Mr. William “Bruno” Millonig. We are particularly thankful to Ms. Debra Stanislawski for her assistance with this report. We are grateful as well for the substantive core support for the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences received from NSF’s Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Directorate, which ensured necessary oversight on the project.

Many individuals contributed their time and effort to this project. They are too numerous to list here, but we are extremely grateful for the contributions of those who served on the steering committees for the summit meeting and six workshops held during the course of the study, which provided us with vital insights about the work of the IC and many lines of SBS research; those who participated in our fact-finding meetings and public workshops; and those who took the time to prepare white papers in response to our requests and participate in other ways in our extensive information-gathering efforts (see Appendix B for a full listing of contributors).

Thanks are also due to the project staff, including Alexandra Beatty, whose expertise in report organization and writing is unmatched; Julie Schuck, who was instrumental in all phases of the project; and Elizabeth Townsend who provided support through its early phases. Thelma Cox managed logistical and administrative matters. Rebecca Morgan and Jorge Mendoza-Torres of the National Academies Research Center conducted literature and data reviews and assisted with report references.

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Matthew W. Brashears, Department of Sociology, University of South

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Carolina; Roger Z. George, Department of Politics, Occidental College; Loch K. Johnson, Department of International Affairs, University of Georgia; Sara B. Kiesler, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University; Stephen Marrin, Integrated Science and Technology/Intelligence Analysis, James Madison University; John E. McLaughlin, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; John Monahan, School of Law, University of Virginia; Frederick L. Oswald, Department of Psychology, Rice University; Peter Pirolli, senior research scientist, Institute for Human and Machine Cognition; Andrew L. Ross, National Security Affairs Program, Texas A&M University; and Paul Slovic, president, Decision Research, and Department of Psychology, University of Oregon.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Cynthia Beall, Department of Anthropology, Case Western Reserve University, and Susan J. Curry, College of Public Health, University of Iowa. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Paul R. Sackett, Chair

Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director

Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
×
Page xviii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25335.
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The primary function of the intelligence analyst is to make sense of information about the world, but the way analysts do that work will look profoundly different a decade from now. Technological changes will bring both new advances in conducting analysis and new risks related to technologically based activities and communications around the world. Because these changes are virtually inevitable, the Intelligence Community will need to make sustained collaboration with researchers in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) a key priority if it is to adapt to these changes in the most productive ways.

A Decadal Survey Of The Social and Behavioral Sciences provides guidance for a 10-year research agenda. This report identifies key opportunities in SBS research for strengthening intelligence analysis and offers ideas for integrating the knowledge and perspectives of researchers from these fields into the planning and design of efforts to support intelligence analysis.

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