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1 Introduction Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are a significant contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, accounting for approximately 22 percent of U.S. transportation energy consumption (Davis et al., 2014). Unlike the light-duty vehicle sector, which has long been subject to corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, the fuel consumption of MHDVs has only recently begun to be regulated at the federal level. This regulation of MHDV fuel efficiency was mandated by Congress in 2007 in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), P.L. 110-140. Section 101 of EISA required the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to promulgate fuel efficiency standards for MHDVs. The statute anticipates that these standards would be updated over time and requires the DOT to provide 4 years of lead time between promulgation and enforcement of fuel efficiency standards, and also requires a period of 3 years of stability once the standards are in effect. 1 Section 108 of EISA also requires the Secretary of Transportation to contract with the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to undertake a study on the technologies and costs for improving fuel efficiency in MHDVs. Upon completion of the NAS report and its own study of fuel efficiency standards for MHDVs, the DOT was instructed to promulgate by rulemaking a fuel efficiency program for MHDVs that is âdesigned to achieve the maximum feasible improvementâ in fuel economy and to âadopt and implement appropriate test methods, measurement metrics, fuel economy standards, and compliance and enforcement protocols that are appropriate, cost-effective, and technologically feasible for commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucksâ (49 U.S.C. Â§ 32902(k)(2)). The key events in implementing the EISA requirement for MHDV standards are shown in Figure 1-1. The NAS, through its operating arm the National Research Council (NRC), issued a report on March 31, 2010, entitled Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (henceforth the âNRC Phase One Reportâ) (NRC, 2010). On May 21, 2010, shortly after the release of the NRC report, President Barack Obama directed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), on behalf of the DOT, to issue MHDV fuel economy standards in close coordination with greenhouse gas emissions standards to be promulgated for the same vehicles by the EPA (White House, 2010). Given the connection between fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions, a coordinated approach to fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards would reduce regulatory costs and burdens and minimize inconsistent regulatory requirements by allowing manufacturers to build one set of vehicles to comply with both sets of standards. 1 These timing requirements only apply to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) MHDV fuel efficiency standards, not to the accompanying Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MHDV CO2 standards, which are subject to the Clean Air Act rather than EISA requirements. Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-1
FIGURE 1-1 Key events in MHDV regulation timeline. NOTE: Third NRC report data collection ended in 2017 but was not published until 2019. On September 15, 2011, NHTSA and EPA finalized joint Phase I rules to establish a comprehensive Heavy-Duty National Program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption for on-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. NHTSA adopted final fuel consumption standards under its statutory authority provided by EISA, and EPA adopted carbon dioxide emission standards under its Clean Air Act authority. The coordinated rules were tailored to the same three regulatory categories of heavy-duty vehicles: (i) combination tractors, (ii) heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans, and (iii) vocational vehicles. The EPA greenhouse gas emission standards, which were not subject to the EISA 4-year lead- time requirement, commenced with model year 2014, whereas NHTSAâs fuel efficiency standards were voluntary in model years 2014 and 2015 and became mandatory in model year 2016, in order to comply with EISAâs lead-time requirement. In June 2013, President Barack Obama issued The Presidentâs Climate Action Plan, which states that the Administration plans to work with stakeholders âto develop post-2018 fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles to further reduce fuel consumption through the application of advanced cost- effective technologies and continue efforts to improve the efficiency of moving goods across the United Statesâ (White House, 2013). As NHTSA and EPA began working on a second round of standards, the NRC (2014) issued another reportâReducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy- Duty Vehicles, Phase Two: First Reportâauthored by the present committee and providing recommendations for the Phase II standards. Key recommendations of that report were for NHTSA and EPA to consider various suggested improvements in the certification and compliance procedures using the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (GEM), to adopt fuel efficiency and GHG emission standards for natural gas engines and vehicles, to regulate trailers, to develop and monitor a baseline for fleet emissions that can be used for measuring real-world emissions, and to consider a low-rolling-resistance performance standard for all new tires. The summary of this report is reproduced in Appendix E. In July 2015, EPA and NHTSA published a proposed second round of standardsâknown as Phase IIâwhich were finalized in 2016 (EPA and NHTSA, 2016). The regulations create fuel efficiency and CO 2 standards for the same three categories of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles covered in Phase I: (1) combination tractors, (2) heavy-duty pickups and vans, and (3) vocational vehicles. In addition, for the first time, the federal regulations would regulate trailers pulled by combination tractors, with EPAâs CO 2 Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-2
standards starting in 2018 and NHTSAâs fuel efficiency standards starting in 2021. NHTSA and EPA estimate that these more stringent Phase II standards would, over the course of the program through 2027, conserve approximately 1.8 billion barrels of oil and cut GHG emissions by approximately 1 billion metric tons, cumulative. Figure 1-2 provides a schematic of the different phases of the regulation, the model year vehicles included, and the types of MHDVs that are considered in the standards. FIGURE 1-2 Summary of the different MHDV standard phases, vehicle types included, and affected model years (MYs). This third report by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine on the NHTSA/EPA MHDV program focuses on a possible third phase of regulations to be promulgated by these agencies in the next decade (i.e., in the 2020s). The timing for implementation of a third phase of standards would be affected by several factors that are different for fuel efficiency and GHG emissions. Under EISA, NHTSA must provide 4 yearsâ lead time and 3 years of stability when adopting or revising fuel efficiency standards. These discrete timing provisions do not apply to EPAâs regulatory authority under the Clean Air Act (CAA), which specifies that standards âshall take effect after such period as the Administrator finds necessary to permit the development and application of the requisite technology, giving appropriate consideration to the cost of compliance within such periodâ (CAA Â§202(a)(2)). It is therefore possible for EPA to implement its GHG standards before NHTSA can enforce its fuel efficiency standards. The Phase I standards reflected these different requirements with EPA implementing GHG standards with the 2014 models, while NHTSAâs fuel efficiency standards became mandatory in 2016. The Phase II standards will not be fully implemented until 2027. EPAâs third set of GHG standards could begin with the 2028 model year provided they were adopted early enough to provide adequate lead time. NHTSAâs fuel efficiency standards could not go into effect until 2030 due to the statutory 3-year stability requirement. However, to date both standards have been designed to be met with a single engine and vehicle design. Thus the implementation date for the third set of standards will likely be established by the EPA GHG standards, and could be as early as the 2028 model year. The committeeâs work has focused on addressing the technological and regulatory issues related to future regulatory activities regarding MHDV fuel efficiency and GHG emissions, including a potential Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-3
third phase of rulemakings in the future. The committeeâs work was directed at, and guided by, the committeeâs statement of task reproduced in Box 1-1. Table 1-1 shows which elements of the statement of task are addressed by which chapters. TABLE 1-1 Statement of Task and Report Chapters Report Chapters Statement of Task 1. Introduction 14 2. Setting the Stage: Regulatory Horizons, Challenges, 2, 3 and Influences 3. Certification, Compliance, and Enforcement 1, 2, & 3 4. Powertrain Technologies 4, 6, & 8 5. Technologies for Reducing the Power Demand 8 & 10 6. Projected Benefits of Technologies on Fuel 4, 5, & 12 Consumption 7. Operational Efficiency 9 & 10 8. Hybrid and Electric Powertrain Technologies 6 9. Battery Technologies 7 10. Intermodal ITS and Safety 9 11. Manufacturing Considerations 11 12. Cost-Benefit Analysis 12 & 13 13. Alternative Regulatory Approaches 1 Appendices 1-14 Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-4
BOX 1-1 Statement of Task The committee will give priority in its analytic work to assessing the current medium- and heavy- duty CAFE program broadly while making recommendations for improvements to future programs. The areas to be assessed should include rulemaking assumptions, analytical methods used, and values used in the analyses. The committee will also produce an updated assessment of technologies and programs for reducing the fuel consumption of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and reassess the technologies analyzed in the NRC report, Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (2010), providing updated estimates of the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed in model years 2022 and beyond. The committee will investigate developments that have occurred and technologies that have entered the market since the initial report was issued, especially any new technologies that may become important by 2030. In particular, the committee will address the following tasks: 1. Review and contrast the final rule for fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles for model years 2014-2018 with the recommendations offered in the NRC 2010 report. Identify the potential implications and gaps in the U.S. regulatory process for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles as they pertain to the engine manufacturers, trailer manufacturers, final stage manufacturers, and complete vehicles. As part of this activity, explore regulatory options for trailers from a total vehicle perspective. Contrast the U.S. regulatory approach to that in other parts of the world, notably Europe, Japan, China, and India. 2. Analyze and provide options for improvements to the certification and compliance procedures for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including the use of representative test cycles and simulation using EPAâs GEM. 3. Review updated baseline information on the medium- and heavy-duty truck fleet, including combination tractors and trailers, as well as the methodology for providing on-road information on fuel consumption necessary to inform baseline standards. 4. Examine advanced gasoline engine technologies, including the ability of those engines to meet load demands, the impact of those engines on cost, the need for after-treatment systems, and their market acceptability. Consider the impacts of possible alternative fuels on these technologies. Technology assessments shall include, but not be limited to, engine technologies such as waste-heat recovery, low-temperature combustion, downsizing, and others. 5. Examine diesel emission control systems, including the capabilities of emission control systems to meet current and possible future criteria pollutant emissions standards, the impacts on fuel consumption attributed to meeting emissions standards, and the fuel characteristics needed to enable low-emissions diesel technologies. Also consider the impacts of possible alternative fuels on these technologies. 6. Examine electric powertrain technologies, including the capabilities, limitations, and cost of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. Specific areas of interest include electric hybrids, hydraulic hybrids, and other hybrids; all electric vehicles; start-stop systems; implementation strategies; total capital and operating costs; modeling and simulations as a tool; the certification process; and emissions compliance. Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-5
7. Examine battery technologies including an examination of the cost, performance, range, durability (including performance degradation over time), and safety issues related to lithium-ion and other possible advanced energy storage technologies that are necessary to enable plug-in and full- function electric vehicles. 8. Examine vehicle technologies such as mass reduction, aerodynamic drag improvements, automatic tire inflation systems, improved transmissions, improved efficiency of accessories, fans, and water pumps, and other approaches. Evaluate the potential for reducing vehicle mass including technologies such as materials substitution, and the use of new vehicle, structural, system, or component designs. 9. Evaluate intermodal and intelligent systems for potential fuel consumption benefits, including a survey of the current fleet communication systems (vehicle to vehicle, vehicle to infrastructure), existing barriers to implementation, and future technologies. 10. Review the potential impacts of fuel-consumption-reduction technologies on medium- and heavy-duty vehicle safety including aerodynamic components, wide-based wheels and tires, tire pressure monitoring and automatic inflation systems, hybridization and alternative fuels, combination vehicles and higher gross vehicle weight ratings, lightweighting, idle reduction and stop-start, and others. 11. Provide an analysis of how fuel efficient technologies may be practically integrated into manufacturing processes and how such technologies are likely to be applied in response to requirements for reducing fuel consumption. Also provide an analysis of how technology implementation is likely to impact capital equipment and engineering, research, and development costs, the certification process, and emissions compliance. 12. Examine the costs, cost multipliers, and benefits that could accompany the introduction of technologies for reducing fuel consumption. Consider, to the extent possible, initial and life-cycle costs, including such aspects as operation, maintenance, insurance, and other factors. Become informed of and consider the activities of an ongoing study for NHTSA by the National Research Council on the assessment of technologies for improving fuel economy for light-duty vehicles to assess whether the analysis of that study with regards to incremental indirect costs and the impacts of learning on costs are relevant for technologies used for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. 13. To the extent possible, address uncertainties and perform sensitivity analyses for the fuel consumption and cost-benefit estimates and provide guidance to NHTSA on improving its uncertainty analyses given the relatively long time frame for these future estimates. 14. Write and provide to NHTSA, the Congress, and the public a final report documenting its conclusions and recommendations. Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-6
REFERENCES Davis, S.C., S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy. 2014. Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 33. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. March. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration). 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions standards and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy- duty engines and vehicles. Federal Register 76:57106-57513 (September 15). EPA and NHTSA. 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy- duty engines and vehiclesâPhase 2. Federal Register 80:40138-40765 (July 13). EPA and NHTSA. 2016. Greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy- duty engines and vehiclesâPhase 2. Federal Register 81:73478-74274 (October 25). NRC (National Research Council). 2010. Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2014. Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy- Duty Vehicles, Phase II: Report 1. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. White House. 2010. Improving Energy Security, American Competitiveness and Job Creation, and Environmental Protection through a Transformation of our Nation's Fleet of Cars and Trucks. Office of the Press Secretary. May 21. White House. 2013. The Presidentâs Climate Action Plan. Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf. Accessed August 27, 2019. Prepublication Copy â Subject to Further Editorial Correction 1-7