National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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National

Earthquake

Resilience

RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH

Committee on National Earthquake Resilience—
Research, Implementation, and Outreach

Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS    500 Fifth Street, N.W.    Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by the National Institute of Standards and Technology under contract No. SB134106Z0011. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations contained in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-18677-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-18677-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011933648

Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet www.nap.edu.

Cover: Cover design by Francesca Moghari. Seismogram images courtesy of iStockphoto LP.

Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE—RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH

ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Chair, Zelienople, Pennsylvania

RICHARD A. ANDREWS, Independent Consultant, Redlands, California

ROBERT A. BAUER, Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign

JANE A. BULLOCK, Bullock and Haddow, LLC, Reston, Virginia

STEPHANIE E. CHANG, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

WILLIAM T. HOLMES, Rutherford & Chekene, San Francisco, California

LAURIE A. JOHNSON, Laurie Johnson Consulting and Research, San Francisco, California

THOMAS H. JORDAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

GARY A. KREPS, College of William and Mary (emeritus), Williamsburg, Virginia

ADAM Z. ROSE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

L. THOMAS TOBIN, Tobin & Associates, Mill Valley, California

ANDREW S. WHITTAKER, State University of New York, Buffalo

Liaison from Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics

STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California

National Research Council Staff

DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate

JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado

KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara

DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia

WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley

ROGER M. DOWNS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara

WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia

RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.

MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe

ROBERT B. McMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado

ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis

CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico

BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville

CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (Retired), Ocean Park, Washington

HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson

PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego

REGINAL SPILLER, Frontera Resources Corporation (Retired), Houston, Texas

RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Denver, Colorado

TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico

National Research Council Staff

ANTHONY R. de SOUZA, Director

ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer

DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer

ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer

SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer

MARK D. LANGE, Associate Program Officer

JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate

JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS

DAVID T. SANDWELL, Chair, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

MICHAEL E. WYSESSION, Vice Chair, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri

J. RAMÓN ARROWSMITH, Arizona State University, Tempe

EMILY E. BRODSKY, University of California, Santa Cruz

JAMES L. DAVIS, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California

PETER L. OLSON, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

NANCY L. ROSS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Blacksburg

CHARLOTTE A. ROWE, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico

BRIAN W. STUMP, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas

AARON A. VELASCO, University of Texas, El Paso

Page viii Cite
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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Preface

Earthquakes threaten much of the United States—damaging earthquakes struck Alaska in 1964 and 2002, California in 1857 and 1906, and the central Mississippi River Valley in 1811 and 1812. Moderate earthquakes causing substantial damage have repeatedly struck most of the western states as well as several mid-western and eastern states, e.g., South Carolina in 1886 and Massachusetts in 1755. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose, and the tragic impacts are especially striking because Japan is an acknowledged leader in implementing earthquake-resilient measures.1 Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts—the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors—demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area.

Much can be done to mitigate the impact of earthquakes. Active fault zones and unstable ground can be avoided through wise land-use practices. Application of earthquake-resistant building codes and practices can reduce damage and casualties. Insurance and government assistance can facilitate recovery and ease economic impacts. And rapid response can save lives and restore essential services. Beyond these traditional approaches to reducing earthquake losses, there is a need for increased attention to the actions necessary for communities to rebound from an earthquake disaster.

_________________

1 This tragedy occurred during report production, after the report had been completed and reviewed, so the committee was not able to include it in its analysis.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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Recognizing the earthquake threat and the need to improve mitigation measures, Congress established the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) in 1977 and has periodically reauthorized the program to the present time. NEHRP charges four federal agencies—the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—to advance knowledge of earthquake causes and effects and to develop and promulgate measures to reduce their impacts.

NIST, in its role as NEHRP lead agency, published a Strategic Plan for NEHRP in 2008 for the years 2009-2013, specifying the program’s vision, mission, goals and objectives (NIST, 2008; summarized in Appendix A). In 2009, NIST requested that the National Research Council of the National Academies conduct a study, building on the Strategic Plan, to recommend a roadmap of national needs in research, knowledge transfer, implementation, and outreach to provide the tools to make the United States more earthquake resilient. Further, NIST requested that the roadmap use the results of a 2003 report by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute titled Securing Society Against Earthquake Losses—A Research and Outreach Plan in Earthquake Engineering (EERI, 2003b; summarized in Appendix B). The EERI report includes cost projections for the program over a 20-year period, based on expert opinion, which NIST requested be updated and validated by our committee.

To carry out the study, the NRC established the Committee on Earthquake Resilience—Research, Implementation, and Outreach, an ad hoc committee under the Division on Earth and Life Studies. The committee membership includes experts from the full range of disciplines involved with earthquake risk mitigation. It met four times, including a workshop at the National Academies’ Beckman Center in Irvine, California, which was attended by the committee members and about 40 invited participants, including representatives of the NEHRP agencies. The contributions of the participants informed the committee about key issues and concerns regarding NEHRP and contributed substantially to formulating the recommendations in this report.

Robert M. Hamilton
Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
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Acknowledgments

This report was greatly enhanced by those who made presentations to the committee at the public committee meetings and by the participants at the open workshop sponsored by the committee to gain community input—David Applegate, Walter Arabasz, Ralph Archuleta, Mark Benthien, Jonathan Bray, Arrietta Chakos, Mary Comerio, Reginald DesRoches, Andrea Donnellan, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Paul Earle, Richard Eisner, Ronald Eguchi, John Filson, Richard Fragaszy, Art Frankel, James Goltz, Ronald Hamburger, Jim Harris, Jack Hayes, Jon Heintz, Eric Holdeman, Doug Honegger, Richard Howe, Theresa Jefferson, Lucy Jones, Ed Laatsch, Michael Lindell, Nicolas Luco, Steven Mahin, Mike Mahoney, Peter May, Dick McCarthy, David Mendonça, Dennis Mileti, Robert Olson, Joy Pauschke, Chris Poland, Woody Savage, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Paul Somerville, Shyam Sunder, Kathleen Tierney, Susan Tubbesing, John Vidale, Yumei Wang, Gary Webb, Dennis Wenger, Sharon Wood, and Eva Zanzerkia. The presentations and discussions at these meetings provided invaluable input and context for the committee’s deliberations.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

John T. Christian, Independent Consultant, Waltham, Massachusetts

Lloyd S. Cluff, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California

James H. Dieterich, University of California, Riverside

Carl A. Maida, University of California, Los Angeles

Chris D. Poland, Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California

Barbara A. Romanowicz, University of California, Berkeley

Hope A. Seligson, MMI Engineering, Huntington Beach, California

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Ross B. Corotis, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, and Warren M. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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The United States will certainly be subject to damaging earthquakes in the future. Some of these earthquakes will occur in highly populated and vulnerable areas. Coping with moderate earthquakes is not a reliable indicator of preparedness for a major earthquake in a populated area. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose. Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts-the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors-demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. National Earthquake Resilience presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes.

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is the multi-agency program mandated by Congress to undertake activities to reduce the effects of future earthquakes in the United States. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-the lead NEHRP agency-commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. National Earthquake Resilience does this by assessing the activities and costs that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years.

National Earthquake Resilience interprets resilience broadly to incorporate engineering/science (physical), social/economic (behavioral), and institutional (governing) dimensions. Resilience encompasses both pre-disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster response. In combination, these will enhance the robustness of communities in all earthquake-vulnerable regions of our nation so that they can function adequately following damaging earthquakes. While National Earthquake Resilience is written primarily for the NEHRP, it also speaks to a broader audience of policy makers, earth scientists, and emergency managers.

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