National Academies Press: OpenBook

National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach (2011)

Chapter: 4 Costing the Roadmap Elements

« Previous: 3 Elements of the Roadmap
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

4

Costing the Roadmap Elements

The charge for this study required that the committee “estimate program costs, on an annual basis, that will be required to implement the roadmap.” The committee was directed to consider the detailed cost estimates presented in the 2003 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) report (EERI, 2003b), and validate or revise these estimates. In its deliberations, the committee initially focused on the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan, analyzing its goals, objectives, and strategic priorities, and then reviewed the EERI plan and cost estimates. Ultimately, the 18 tasks described in the previous chapter—the elements of the roadmap—are far broader in scope than the elements of the EERI plan, and consequently the costing estimates presented here are substantially different from those that were presented in EERI (2003b).

In estimating costs to implement the roadmap, the committee recognized the high degree of variability among the 18 tasks—some (e.g., deployment of the Advanced National Seismic System [ANSS]) are well developed and actually in the process of being implemented, whereas others are only at the conceptual stage. Costing each task required a thorough analysis to determine scope, implementation steps, and linkages or overlaps with other tasks. For some of the tasks, the necessary analysis had already been completed in workshops or other venues, and realistic cost estimates were available as input to the committee. For other tasks, the committee had nothing more to go on that its own expert opinion, in which case implementing the task may require some degree of additional detailed analysis.

Table 4.1 lists the cost estimates for each task for implementation

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

TABLE 4.1 Compilation of Cost Estimates by Task, in Millions of Dollarsa

Task Annualized Costs (av.) Years 1-5 ($) Total Cost Years 1-5 ($) Total Cost Years 6-20 ($) Total Cost ($)
1. Physics of Earthquake Processes 27 135 450 585
2. Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)b 66.8 334 1,002 1,336
3. Earthquake Early Warning 20.6 103 180 283
4. National Seismic Hazard Model 50.1 250.5 696 946.5
5. Operational Earthquake Forecasting 5 25 60 85
6. Earthquake Scenarios 10 50 150 200
7. Earthquake Risk Assessments and Applications 5 25 75 100
8. Post-earthquake Social Science Response and Recovery Research 2.3 11.5 TBD c TBD c
9. Post-earthquake Information Management 1 4.8 9.8 14.6
10. Socioeconomic Research on Hazard Mitigation and Recovery 3 15 45 60
11. Observatory Network on Community Resilience and Vulnerability 2.9 14.5 42.8 57.3
12. Physics-based Simulations of Earthquake Damage and Loss 6 30 90 120
13. Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit of Existing Buildings 22.9 114.5 429.1 543.6
14. Performance-based Earthquake Engineering for Buildings 46.7 233.7 657.8 891.5
15. Guidelines for Earthquake-Resilient Lifelines Systems 5 25 75 100
16. Next Generation Sustainable Materials, Components, and Systems 8.2 40.8 293.6 334.4
17. Knowledge, Tools, and Technology Transfer to Public and Private Practice 8.4 42 126 168
18. Earthquake-Resilient Communities and Regional Demonstration Projects 15.6 78 923 1,001
TOTAL 306.5 1,532.3 5,305.1 6,837.4

a See following section for explanatory notes (all figures are 2009 dollars).

b Does not include support for geodetic monitoring or geodetic networks.

c Funding during the remaining 15 years of the plan would be based on a performance review after 5 years.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

time-frames of 0-5 years, 6-20 years, and the overall 20-year total. In summary, the annualized cost for the first 5 years of the program for national earthquake resilience is $306.5 million/year.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR COSTING

Much of the finer detail used as the basis for task costing is presented in Appendix E. The following is summary information (using 2009$) to assist with reading the cost estimates presented in Table 4.1.

Task 1—Physics of Earthquake Processes

Basic research on the physics of earthquake processes is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under NEHRP. In recent fiscal years, neither agency has explicitly summarized its expenditures in this particular task area, but current investments can be estimated from reported agency budgets.

• Significant support by NSF for research on the physics of earthquake processes is channeled through the International Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) (total budget of $12.4 million in FY2010), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) ($3.0 million), and EarthScope ($25.0 million), as well as through NSF’s Division of Earth Sciences (EAR) core program in geophysics. At least $15 million of these FY2010 funds supported basic research on earthquake physics.

• The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program expended a total of $13 million on earthquake physics research in FY2010; this amount included $10.6 million for its internal program and $2.4 million for its external programs.

Therefore, FY2010 NEHRP expenditures in support of Task 1 totaled more than $27 million/year, when summed over NSF and USGS. Many of the tasks outlined in this report require a better understanding of earthquake physics. Basic research in this area is proceeding vigorously, as described in Chapter 3, and current levels on investment should be maintained for at least the next 5 years, which implies a minimum 5-year budget of ~$135 million. Following this initial investment, we estimate average annual expenditure of ~$30 million/year.

Task 2—Advanced National Seismic System

• The capitalization cost for the full ANSS is estimated at $175 million. Prior to ARRA and through FY2009, USGS will have invested about

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

$26 million, and after the ARRA expenditure of $19 million—for a total of $45 million—the system will be about 25 percent complete at the end of 2011.1

• Current ANSS operations cost $24 million/year, and operational costs are estimated as $50 million/year when ANSS is fully implemented. The current USGS long-term budget request for ANSS is $50 million/year. Because operational costs will increase as the network is developed, it will become increasingly difficult to allocate sufficient capitalization funds for the network to be completed by the target date of 2018 unless there is a substantially increased funding allocation by Congress.

• These cost estimates include continued support at existing levels for the Global Seismic Network, an important subsystem of ANSS, currently funded under NEHRP at $9.8 million/year ($5.8 million/year by USGS and $4 million/year by NSF).

• These costs also do not include geodetic monitoring, primarily by GPS and strainmeter networks, which is complementary to seismic monitoring. In FY2009, USGS spent $2.35 million on geodetic data collection, which included network operations. NSF supports geodetic data collection, including network operations, primarily through UNAVCO, which received $3.7 million for this purpose in FY2009. Additional support for GPS geodesy comes from NASA.

• It is likely that the ANSS Steering Committee will soon recommend that geodetic networks be incorporated into ANSS, and this will obviously increase the scope and cost of ANSS.

Task 3—Earthquake Early Warning

The implementation of effective earthquake early warning (EEW) systems will require the full implementation of ANSS, and the budget analysis presented here assumes a full implementation.

• Current development activities are limited to the USGS EEW demonstration project in California, which expended $0.5 million in FY2010. The President’s request to Congress for EEW is $1 million in FY2011.

• The costs of a 3-year implementation plan for EEW in California have been estimated by the California Integrated Seismic Network to be $53.4 million. This includes $32.4 million for equipment upgrades, new equipment, and software development, and $21 million for product development, development of public and professional best practices, and management. Operational costs for the California EEW system are estimated to be $8 million/year.

_________________

1 See earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/anss/documents.php.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

• Implementation of an EEW system for Cascadia can leverage on existing and planned elements of ANSS and the tsunami warning system. Based on a 3-year development timeline, a rough estimate of the marginal cost is $25 million, about half that of the California system. Operational costs, similarly scaled, would be ~$4 million/year.

• The total 5-year costs for EEW systems in California and Cascadia are estimated to be $103 million.

Task 4—National Seismic Hazard Model

• A table listing annualized costs for years 1-5 ($42.3 million/year), 6-10 ($43.2 million/year), and 11-20 ($37.4 million/year) is presented as Table E.1 in Appendix E.

• The costs of seismic hazard mapping are reported here, but it should be noted that this component contributes substantially to many other tasks, particularly Tasks 13 and 14.

• The total 5-year costs for local and national mapping of seismic hazard are estimated to be approximately $250 million.

Task 5—Operational Earthquake Forecasting

• USGS and NSF are currently supporting the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) to develop the Uniform California Rupture Earthquake Forecast 3 (UCERF3), which will include a short-term forecasting capability, at a rate of approximately $2 million/year. WGCEP is also receiving $0.8 million/year from the California Earthquake Authority. A comparable level of expenditure would be needed to develop earthquake forecasting models in California and other seismically active regions of the United States.

• The President’s FY2011 budget request to Congress allocates $3 million for the production of earthquake information at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, CO. It also requests $0.5 million to enhance the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting.

• The costs of prospective testing of operational earthquake forecasts by Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) are estimated to be $0.5 million/year.

• The total 5-year costs for operational earthquake forecasting are estimated to be approximately $25 million.

Task 6—Earthquake Scenarios

• The overall cost of producing an earthquake scenario and exercise for an individual community provides the benchmark for the national

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

scale budget estimates presented here. The Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Authorized Equipment List (AEL) study identified 43 high-risk communities in the United States with AEL greater than $10 million (FEMA, 2008; see Table 3.2), comprising almost 30 percent of the U.S. population base.

• Experience from conducting the pilot earthquake scenarios indicates that the level of effort is, in part, dictated by the size of the community. Small communities with populations less than 500,000 people, such as the Evansville, IN, example described in Chapter 2, have been able to map the local geology and site conditions, develop GIS databases for Urban Seismic Hazard Maps, improve local building and critical infrastructure inventories, and run loss estimation models for scenario events for ~$0.5 million over a period of 5 years under the USGS Urban Hazard Mapping Program.

• There are 18 high-risk communities with populations of 500,000 or less. Cities with populations greater than 1 million would require proportionally more time and resources. The Saint Louis Urban Hazard Mapping Project, for example, has a mapping program for 29 quadrangles over 10 years. Costs associated with this effort are estimated to be ~$2 million.

• Note that estimates for the Evansville, IN, and Saint Louis, MO, examples do not include costs for conducting community-wide earthquake exercises.

• Larger efforts, such as the 2008 southern California ShakeOut exercise discussed in Chapter 1, involved the NEHRP agencies as well as widespread participation by local scientific, community, and media organizations. The initial “start up costs” for the ShakeOut scenario development and exercise totaled ~$6 million (L. Jones and M. Benthien, written communication, 2011).

• Nationally, there are 16 high-risk communities with populations greater than 1 million.

• Consequently, we estimate it would require ~$200 million to develop a uniform series of urban seismic hazard and risk maps and to conduct earthquake exercises for the 43 communities identified in Table 3.2. Funding for the development of comprehensive earthquake risk scenarios and risk assessments in the current (FY2009) NEHRP budget is $1.5 million; we estimate that $10 million/year will be required.

Task 7—Earthquake Risk Assessment and Applications

• At the national level, support for the development of hazards and risk assessment methodologies and support for the basic research that provides the various elements required for the methodology has been a key element of the NEHRP program. At present (FY2009), support for the

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

development of advanced loss estimation and risk assessment tools in the NEHRP budget is $0.5 million.

• Development of the next generation hazard loss estimation tool—although Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) is useful as an inexpensive and easy-to-use loss estimation tool, and is able to yield approximate estimates of hazard losses, greater accuracy is needed for the focused allocation of funding for loss reduction and for policy decisions in general. This program would take advantage of the significant advances in hazard loss estimation achieved by the three existing Earthquake Engineering Research Centers over the past dozen years, to synthesize these advances and develop an expert system for higher-level use. The goal is software that would be accessible to expert teams addressing strategic decisions and more severe disasters.

• We estimate that the funding required for both short-term methodology development and longer-term capability development is $5 million/year.

Task 8—Post-earthquake Social Science Response and Recovery Research

• Development of Standardized Data Protocols, to include 2-4 methodological projects during the initial 2 years to develop standardized research protocols for social science studies of post-disaster response and recovery activities and preparedness practices associated with them. The cost of these projects and resulting workshops are estimated at $1.5 million.

• Establishment of a National Center for Social Science Research on Earthquakes and Other Disasters—the center’s primary mission would be to oversee the implementation of standardized research protocols and address, on a continuing basis, related data management issues. The estimated funding for such a center is $2.3 million/year for the initial 5 years; funding during the remaining 15 years of the plan would be based on a performance review after 5 years.

Task 9—Post-earthquake Information Management

• The cost estimates for a post-earthquake information management system (PIMS) are based on a two-phase development approach (PIMS Project Team, 2008).

• The first phase would develop an initial PIMS capability and could be accomplished in 2 years at $1 million/year.

• The second phase could take from 5 to 10 years and would involve development of a more advanced, “full-function” PIMS. Phase 2 will

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

involve about 7 to 9 pilot projects that would have both a development phase and an implementation phase. Operations costs would continue beyond the development period of Phase 2.

• There would be substantial additional costs incurred whenever the system is activated post-event to harvest, distribute, and archive information. These costs are beyond the focus of this study and would have to be addressed on a case-by-case basis. A more detailed implementation budget is included with assumptions as Table E.2 in Appendix E.

Task 10—Socio-economic Research on Hazard Mitigation and Recovery

The task includes five research program elements that together total $3 million/year:

• Research program on mitigation and recovery, to include studies on the cost and effectiveness of various resilient strategies and the use of these results to inform and develop prospective indices of resilience; estimated at $1 million/year. This program would also include evaluation of the role of the new business continuity industry as a complement to government assistance, deeper analysis of organizational response to disasters and obstacles to implementation of resilience, as well as policy instruments to overcome these obstacles and to promote best practice. It would also involve analysis of long-run effects of disasters and comprehensive planning frameworks to promote resilience against any such losses. Research should also be extended into new areas such as equity and justice, and ecological resilience.

• Research program on the long-term impacts of disasters; estimated at $0.5 million/year. This would involve the further development of a framework for analysis, and rigorous testing at sites of major earthquakes and other major disasters. This program would also address key policy issues including such questions as the necessity of re-building in the same locations, migration support, and mandating of mitigation during the recovery and reconstruction processes.

• Research program on equity and justice in hazard resilience; estimated at $0.5 million/year. Research would focus on the exploration of equity/justice principles, analysis of the implications of their application, and their acceptance by communities and policy-makers. It would be applied to a broad range of disadvantaged groups including racial/ethnic minorities, women, the aged and the very young, the physically challenged, and the poor.

• Development of a National Clearinghouse for Economic Resilience; estimated at $1 million/year. This clearinghouse would combine research and practice—research to develop resilience metrics and new

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

resilience strategies that would then be transformed into operational activities and tested in pilot programs. Practitioners in the private and public sectors would share their experiences with the broad community through the clearinghouse. See also an expanded role for Task 11.

Task 11—Observatory Network on Community Resilience and Vulnerability

• Costs associated with development of an Observatory Network on Community Resilience and Vulnerability are estimated to total $14.5 million over the next 5 years (see details in Table E.3 in Appendix E), with continuing funding through Year 20 of $2.9 million/year. This estimate, based on the phased implementation outlined in the RAVON workshop report (Peacock et al., 2008), represents the middle of the cost range suggested in that report.

• Although implementing Tasks 8, 9, 10, and 11 should be considered separately, the potential for leveraging resources across these tasks is substantial. Because of its more global nature, Task 11 would serve as the umbrella for considering such leveraging.

Task 12—Physics-based Simulations of Earthquake Damage and Loss

• The annualized cost for years 1-20 of $6 million/year includes three components: earthquake science ($2 million/year), earthquake engineering ($2 million/year), and information technology ($2 million/year). Funding for the basic science and engineering tasks required to support, improve, and “operationalize” end-to-end simulation tools are included in Tasks 1, 13, 14, and 16.

• Funding for the high-performance computing equipment required to enable end-to-end simulations is assumed to be available through federal agencies or through universities and facilities funded by federal agencies.

Task 13—Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit of Existing Buildings

• A table listing annualized costs for years 1-5 ($22.9 million/year), 6-10 ($34 million/year), and 11-20 ($26 million/year) is presented as Table E.4 in Appendix E, and a more detailed breakdown for each component—including component timing—is presented in Table E.5.

• Program coordination and management costs are 20 percent of the combined research, development, and implementation costs for this task, distributed uniformly over the full 20 years.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

• The costs for NEES operations and maintenance, a substantial contributor to this task, are reported under Task 14.

• The costs for seismic hazard analysis, a key contributor to this task, are reported under Task 4.

Task 14—Performance-based Earthquake Engineering for Buildings

• A table listing annualized costs for years 1-5 ($46.7 million/year), 6-10 ($47.7 million/year), and 11-20 ($41.9 million/year) is presented as Table E.6 in Appendix E, and a more detailed breakdown for each component—including component timing—is presented in Table E.7.

• Program coordination and management costs are 20 percent of the combined research, development, and implementation costs for this task, distributed uniformly over the full 20 years.

• The costs of NEES operations and maintenance are reported here, but it should be noted that the NEES component contributes substantially to many other tasks, particularly Tasks 13 and 16.

• The costs associated with deploying and maintaining ANSS and the costs of seismic hazard analysis, which are key contributors to this task, are reported under Tasks 2 and 4, respectively.

Task 15—Guidelines for Earthquake-Resilient Lifelines Systems

• Both the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) (1997) and EERI (2003b) estimated $3 to $5 million annual budgets for the development of guidelines, manuals of practice, and model codes for seismic design and retrofit of buildings, lifelines, bridges, and coastal structures. EERI (2003b) also identified an additional $5 million/year for demonstration projects and $5 million/year for basic lifeline engineering research.

• Based in part on this background information, we estimate that accomplishing the task as outlined in Chapter 3 would require $5 million/year, representing a very substantial increase from the existing funding level of ~$100,000/year.

Task 16—Next Generation Sustainable Materials, Components, and Systems

• A table listing annualized costs for years 1-5 ($8.2 million/year), 6-10 ($13.9 million/year), and 11-20 ($22.4 million/year) is presented as Table E.8 in Appendix E, and a more detailed breakdown for each component—including component timing—is presented in Table E.9.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

• The costs for NEES operations and maintenance, a substantial contributor to this task, are reported under Task 14.

Task 17—Knowledge, Tools, and Technology Transfer to Public and Private Practice

• Annual costs include the development of seismic standards and the development of research consolidation documents ($8.4 million/year), for a total of $168 million over 20 years.

Task 18—Earthquake-Resilient Communities and Regional Demonstration Projects

• The resources that would be needed at any particular time would depend on the number of communities selected, the amount of matching funds provided, and the number and nature of demonstration projects. We recommend that the program begin with a few communities, and then expand as capacity improves and community leaders are developed who can provide peer-to-peer mentoring.

• The average unit cost per community would be about $750,000/year, varying depending on the size and complexity of each community and the nature of selected demonstration projects. We propose initial funding for the first 2 years at $4 million/year, increasing to $69 million/year per year when the program includes a full complement of 60 communities. Additional cost breakdown information is presented in Table E.10 in Appendix E.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×

This page intentionally left blank.

Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 171
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 172
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 173
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 174
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 175
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 176
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 177
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 178
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 179
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 180
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 181
Suggested Citation:"4 Costing the Roadmap Elements." National Research Council. 2011. National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13092.
×
Page 182
Next: 5 Conclusions - Achieving Earthquake Resilience »
National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $40.00 Buy Ebook | $31.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

The United States will certainly be subject to damaging earthquakes in the future. Some of these earthquakes will occur in highly populated and vulnerable areas. Coping with moderate earthquakes is not a reliable indicator of preparedness for a major earthquake in a populated area. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose. Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts-the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors-demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. National Earthquake Resilience presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes.

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is the multi-agency program mandated by Congress to undertake activities to reduce the effects of future earthquakes in the United States. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-the lead NEHRP agency-commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. National Earthquake Resilience does this by assessing the activities and costs that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years.

National Earthquake Resilience interprets resilience broadly to incorporate engineering/science (physical), social/economic (behavioral), and institutional (governing) dimensions. Resilience encompasses both pre-disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster response. In combination, these will enhance the robustness of communities in all earthquake-vulnerable regions of our nation so that they can function adequately following damaging earthquakes. While National Earthquake Resilience is written primarily for the NEHRP, it also speaks to a broader audience of policy makers, earth scientists, and emergency managers.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!