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Prepublication Copy Uncorrected Proofs MEASURING THE 21st CENTURY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORKFORCE POPULATION: EVOLVING NEEDS Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education ADVANCE COPY NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE BEFORE January 9, 2018 11 a.m. EST A Consensus Study Report of
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation (#SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Measuring the 21st Century Science and Engineering Workforce Population: Evolving Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968.
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS PANEL TO EVALUATE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING STATISTICS APPROACH TO MEASURING THE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORKFORCE RITA COLWELL (Co-Chair), University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University JAMES S. HOUSE (Co-Chair), University of Michigan JENNIFER SUE BOND, Council on Competitiveness GEOFF DAVIS, Google, Inc. DONALD DILLMAN, Washington State University RICHARD FREEMAN, Harvard University JACK GAMBINO, Statistics Canada MARESI NERAD, University of Washington RANDALL OLSEN, Ohio State University WILLIE PEARSON, JR., Georgia Institute of Technology KEITH RUST, Westat NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, University of Wisconsin-Madison JAMES WAGNER, University of Michigan YU XIE, Princeton University KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director ANTHONY MANN, Program Coordinator v
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Provost, Georgetown University FRANCINE BLAU, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University MARY ELLEN BOCK, Department of Statistics, Purdue University (emerita) ANNE C. CASE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University MICHAEL CHERNEW, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School JANET CURRIE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University DONALD DILLMAN, Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University JAMES HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan THOMAS MESENBOURG, Retired, formerly with U.S. Census Bureau SUSAN A. MURPHY, Department of Statistics and Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan SARAH NUSSER, Office of the Vice President for Research and Department of Statistics, Iowa State University COLM OâMUIRCHEARTAIGH, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University ROBERTO RIGOBON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles EDWARD SHORTLIFFE, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University/Arizona State University BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar vi
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Acknowledgments Personally, and on behalf of the Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce, we wish to thank all those who contributed their time and expertise to inform the panelâs work. The study was initiated by the National Science Foundationâs (NSF) National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) under the guidance of director John Gawalt and deputy director Emilda Rivers. The panel would like to thank the NSF staff who assisted the panel with presentations and background materials, including Mark Fiegener, Beethika Khan, and Kelly Phou from NCSES and Matthew Wilson from the National Science Board Office. Throughout the course of the study, the panel especially benefited from the able and very generous assistance provided by John Finamore, program director of the NSF Human Resources Statistics Program. The panelâs understanding of the needs of data users was greatly expanded by the presentations at a public workshop of William Bonvillian, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Kaye Husbands Fealing, Georgia Institute of Technology; Lisa Frehill, Energetics Technology Center; Donna Ginther, University of Kansas; William Harris, Science Foundation Arizona; Janet Metcalfe, Vitae, United Kingdom; Michael Roach, Cornell University; Fernando Galindo-Rueda, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France; Neil Ruiz, George Washington University; Beate Scholz, independent consultant, Germany; John Skrentny, University of California, San Diego; Tobin Smith, Association of American Universities; Andrea Stith, BioFrontiers, University of Colorado, Boulder; Leigh Ann Pennington, Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education; Yu Tao, Stevens Institute of Technology; Prasanna Tambe, New York University; Michael Teitelbaum, Harvard University; and Brian Yoder, American Society for Engineering Education. The panelâs work was supported by the capable staff of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Brian Harris-Kojetin, director, and Connie Citro, former director, Committee on National Statistics, provided institutional leadership. Krisztina Marton superbly directed the study. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, oversaw the report review process. The report also greatly benefited from the meticulous editing provided by Rona Briere of Briere Associates, Inc. We also thank program associate Anthony Mann for very friendly and efficient logistical support for the panelâs meetings. Finally, and most important, we greatly appreciated the work of our fellow panel members, whose dedication, patience, and commitment made this report possible: Jennifer Bond, Council on Competitiveness; Geoff Davis, Google, Inc.; Don Dillman, Washington State University; Richard Freeman, Harvard University; Jack Gambino, Statistics Canada; Maresi Nerad, University of Washington; Randy Olsen, Ohio State University; Willie Pearson, Georgia Institute of Technology; Keith Rust, Westat; Nora Cate Schaeffer, University of Wisconsin- Madison; James Wagner, University of Michigan; and Yu Xie, Princeton University. Panel members were chosen for their expertise, subject matter knowledge, and varied perspectives, vii
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS serving on the panel as individuals, not as representatives of their employers or organizations. They were a pleasure to work with, increasingly becoming a very intellectually and scientifically engaged and opinionated group, and a quite cohesive one as well. This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Norman M. Bradburn, Senior Fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago; Patrick J. Cantwell, Decennial Statistical Studies Division, U.S Census Bureau; Bonnie J. Dunbar, Aerospace Engineering, TEES Institute for Engineering Education and Innovation, Texas A&M; John L. Eltinge, Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau; Donna K. Ginther, Department of Economics, University of Kansas; Richard C. Larson, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Shirley M. Malcom, Directorate for Education and Human Resources Programs, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Kristen Olson, Department of Sociology, University of NebraskaâLincoln; and Brady T. West, Survey Methodology Program, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by report review coordinator V. Joseph Hotz, Department of Economics, Duke University, and report review monitor Kenneth Wachter, Departments of Demography and Statistics (emeritus), University of California, Berkeley. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. The quality of the report has been enhanced by the entire review process. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. Rita Colwell (Co-Chair), University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University James S. House (Co-Chair), University of Michigan Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce viii
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Acronyms and Abbreviations ACS American Community Survey CARRA Census Bureauâs Center for Administrative Records Research and Applications ECDS Early Career Doctorates Survey ED U.S. Department of Education EIN employer identification number FFRDC Federally Funded Research and Development Center FSRDC Federal Statistical Research Data Center GSS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering IRS Internal Revenue Service LEHD Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCES National Center for Education Statistics NCSES National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics NIH National Institutes of Health NIH IRP National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program NSCG National Survey of College Graduates NSF National Science Foundation NSRCG National Survey of Recent College Graduates SDR Survey of Doctorate Recipients SED Survey of Earned Doctorates SEI Science and Engineering Indicators report S&E science and engineering SSA Social Security Administration UI earnings unemployment insurance earnings USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture WMPD Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering report ix
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PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS Contents SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK FOR THE FUTURE Historical Context NCSESâs Current Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce An Aspirational Framework for the Future Conclusion 2 BACKGROUND ON THE SURVEYS The NCSES Human Resources Statistics Program NCSES Education Surveys NCSES Workforce Surveys Prior Committee on National Statistics Studies 3 EVOLVING DATA NEEDS Workshop on Data Needs Career Pathways International Mobility and Comparisons Work Activities, Training, and Skills Employment Outcomes, Research Productivity, and Entrepreneurship Work Environments and WorkâLife Balance Possible Strategies for Expanding Data on the Science and Engineering Workforce International Efforts and Collaborations To Expand Science and Engineering Workforce Data Monitoring of Future Data Needs 4 SAMPLE DESIGN AND ESTIMATION PROCEDURES NCSESâs Workforce Surveys Sample Design Estimation Methods 5 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING Overview of Data Collection Procedures for the Workforce Surveys Data Collection Modes Survey Content Maintaining Panel Participation and Response Rates Data Processing xi
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 6 DATA ANALYSIS, DISSEMINATION, AND OUTREACH Key Data Products Access to Microdata Publications REFERENCES APPENDIXES A FIGURES AND TABLES IN THE 2016 SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING INDICATORS REPORT THAT USE DATA FROM THE SURVEY OF GRADUATE STUDENTS AND POSTDOCTORATES IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, THE SURVEY OF EARNED DOCTORATES, THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF COLLEGE GRADUATES, AND THE SURVEY OF DOCTORATE RECIPIENTS B QUESTIONNAIRE CONTENT CROSSWALK C WORKSHOP ON DATA NEEDS AGENDA D POTENTIAL USES OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE EARNINGS DATA TO ENHANCE LONGITUDINAL DATA E BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF xii
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes FIGURES 2-1 Population coverage for the National Survey of College Graduates, Survey of Doctorate Recipients, and Early Career Doctorates Survey. 3-1 Current workforce sizes and annual fluxes before and after receiving a doctorate in the biomedical sciences. 3-2 Principal job work activities question in the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients. 3-3 Principal job work activities question in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (web survey script). 3-4 Training questions in the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients. 3-5 Questions about professional activities in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (web survey script). 3-6 Questions about principal job work activities in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (web survey script). 4-1 Sample design of the National Survey of College Graduates. 4-2 Number of Survey of Doctorate Recipients sample members residing abroad by degree year, 2013 and 2015. 5-1 Sample member contact strategy for the National Survey of College Graduates. 5-2 Sample member contact strategy for the Survey of Doctorate Recipients. 5-3 Sample member contact strategy for the Early Career Doctorates Survey. 5-4 Principal employer question on the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients. TABLES 1-1 Science and Engineering Education and Workforce Surveys of the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics 4-1 Sample of the 2015 Survey of Doctorate Recipients by Cohort 5-1 Key Data Collection Characteristics of the NCSES Education and Workforce Surveys 5-2 NSCG Web Survey Response by Device, 2013 and 2015 xiii
PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS BOXES 1-1 Statement of Task 2-1 Main Topics in the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering (GSS) 2-2 Main Topics in the Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED) 2-3 Main Topics in the National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) 2-4 Main Topics in the Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR) 2-5 Main Topics in the Early Career Doctorates Survey (ECDS) xiv