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Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop (2019)

Chapter: Committee on National Statistics

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Suggested Citation:"Committee on National Statistics." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

The Committee on National Statistics was established in 1972 at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to improve the statistical methods and information on which public policy decisions are based. The committee carries out studies, workshops, and other activities to foster better measures and fuller understanding of the economy, the environment, public health, crime, education, immigration, poverty, welfare, and other public policy issues. It also evaluates ongoing statistical programs and tracks the statistical policy and coordinating activities of the federal government, serving a unique role at the intersection of statistics and public policy. The committee’s work is supported by a consortium of federal agencies through a National Science Foundation grant, a National Agricultural Statistics Service cooperative agreement, and several individual contracts.

Suggested Citation:"Committee on National Statistics." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Using Models to Estimate Hog and Pig Inventories: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25526.
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In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS’s 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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