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OVERVIEW OF THE U.S. CIVIL AVIATION MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 21 TABLE 1-3 Employment in Aircraft Manufacturing, 1972â1982 (thousands) Year Total Production Workers Scientists and Engineers 1972 494.9 266.2 70.8 1973 524.9 284.2 72.1 1974 539.4 291.9 70.6 1975 514.0 271.1 67.5 1976 487.1 250.7 66.9 1977 481.7 246.8 72.0 1978 527.2 275.4 82.0 1979 610.8 332.1 86.5 1980 632.3 354.6 85.9 1981 648.9 344.6 95.2 1982 611.8 309.9 95.3 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment and Earnings (Monthly), U.S. Department of Labor. National Science Foundation. This U.S. export trade contributes significantly to the strength and cost- effectiveness of the U.S. aerospace manufacturing industry. A loss in foreign trade can have significant impact on U.S. jobs and the economy. It has been estimated that every $1 billion increase in aircraft exports could provide the equivalent of 16,490 direct and indirect full-time job-years per year in the 1982 to 1990 period. Of this number, 4,910 persons would be employed directly in the aircraft industry. In addition to the $1 billion in sales, follow-on orders of aircraft and spares would provide estimated sales totaling $6.5 billion in the 1982 to 1990 period.1 ECONOMICS OF THE INDUSTRY The manufacture of civilian aircraft, especially large commercial transports, is a long-term, high-risk, multibillion-dollar venture. The lead times required are on the order of four years for the aircraft and six years for the jet engine to power it. Since the expected life of the aircraft in the manufacturer's product line is approximately 15 years, the market at which the product is aimed may be 5 to 20 years in the future, i.e., long after the key product decisions are made. Only very gross data on economic growth, air travel, and cost of capital and fuel are available. Estimates contain huge amounts of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the aircraft manufacturer must risk $2 to $5 billion with the high probability that even a successful venture will not break even in terms of cash flow for at least 10 to 15 years. The jet engine
