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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 326
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 327
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 328
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 329
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 330

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EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF U.S. POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 326 with a slight tendency to underestimate growth rates. Finally, we examined several methods that have been used to place confidence limits about population projections. The validity of these error bounds depends on whether fluctuations in vital rates are becoming more stable over time. Several studies that assume stability have concluded that the Census Bureau's high and low projections have typically spanned a two-thirds confidence interval. On this basis we might expect the future population to fall between the high and low projections roughly two-thirds of the time. REFERENCES Ahlburg, D.A. 1990 The Ex-Ante Forcasting Performance of an Economic- Demographic Forecasting Model and the Bureau of the Census Projections of Total Live Births. Paper presented at annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto. May 3–5. Ahlburg, D.A., and Vaupel, J.W. 1990 Alternative Projections of the U.S. Population. Working Paper 90–06–2. Center for Population Analysis and Policy. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota. Alho, J.M. 1984 Probabilistic forecasts: The case of population projections. Scandinavian Housing and Planning Research 1:99–105. 1985 Interval estimates for future population. Pp. 44–51 in 1985 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. Washington, D.C: American Statistical Association. 1990 Stochastic methods in population forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 6(4):521–530. Alho, J.M., and Spencer, B.D. 1985 Uncertain population forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 80(390):306–314. 1990a Effects of targets and aggregation on the propagation of error in mortality forecasts. Mathematical Population Studies 2(3):209–227. 1990b Error models for official mortality forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 85(411):609–616. Ascher, W. 1978 Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Bayo, F.R. 1966 United States Population Projections for OASDHI Cost Estimates. Actuarial Study. No. 62. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Bayo, F.R., and McCay, S.F. 1974 United States Population Projections for OASDHI Cost Estimates. Actuarial Study. No. 72. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF U.S. POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 327 Bayo, F.R., Shiman, H.W., and Sobus, B.R. 1978 United States Population Projections for OASDHI Cost Estimates. Actuarial Study. No. 77. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Beaumont, P.M., and Isserman, A.M. 1987 Comment on tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82(400):1004–1009. Bouvier, L.F. 1990 U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable? Population and Environment 11(3):193–202. Bureau of the Census 1953 Illustrative Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1955 to 1975. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 78. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1955 Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1960 to 1975. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 123. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1962 Interim Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1975 to 1980. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 251. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1966 Revised Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex to 1985. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 329. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1971 Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1970 to 2020. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 470. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1977 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 704. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1990 Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1990. 110th Edition. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Cohen, J.E. 1986 Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: A comparison of model-based and empirical approaches. Demography 23(1):105–126. Crimmins, E.M. 1983 Implications of recent mortality trends for the size and composition of the population over 65. Review of Public Data Use 11:37–48. 1984 Life expectancy and the older population: Demographic implications of recent and prospective trends in old age mortality. Research on Aging 6(4):490–514. Faber, J.F., and Wilkin, J.C. 1981 Social Security Area Population Projections 1981. Actuarial Study. No. 85. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Greenberg, M. 1972 A test of combinations of models for projecting the population of minor civil divisions. Economic Geography 48(2):179– 188. Greville, T.N.E. 1957 Illustrative United States Population Projections. Actuarial Study. No. 46.

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF U.S. POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 328 Division of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Hajnal, J. 1955 The prospects for population forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 50(270):309–322. Heyde, C.C., and Cohen, J.E. 1985 Confidence intervals for demographic projections based on products of random matrices. Theoretical Population Biology 27(2):120–153. Keyfitz, N. 1972 On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67(338):347–362. 1981 The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4):579–594. 1982 Can knowledge improve forecasts? Population and Development Review 8(4):729–747. 1989 Measuring in Advance the Accuracy of Population Forecasts. Unpublished paper. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburgh, Austria. Lee, R.D. 1974 Forecasting births in post- transition populations: Stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility. Journal of the American Statistical Association 69(347):607–617. Lee, R., and Carter, L. 1990 Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality. Paper presented at annual meeting of Population Association of America, Toronto. May 3–5. Long, J.F. 1987 The Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the Census Bureau. Paper presented at annual meeting of Population Association of America, Chicago. April 30–May 2. Myers, R.J., and Rasor, E.A. 1952 Illustrative United States Population Projections, 1952. Actuarial Study. No. 33. Division of the Actuary, Federal Security Agency. Washington, D.C.: Social Security Administration. Olshansky, S.J. 1988 On forecasting mortality. The Milbank Quarterly 66(3):482–530. Saboia J.L.M. 1974 Modeling and forecasting populations by time series: The Swedish case. Demography 11(3):483–492. 1977 Auto- regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for birth forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 72 (358):264–270. Siegel, J.S. 1972 Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the United States. Demography 9(1):51–68. Smith, S.K. 1984 Population Projections: What Do We Really Know? Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Gainesville: University of Florida. 1987 Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82(400):991–1003. Smith, S.K., and Sincich, T. 1988 Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography 25(3):461–474.

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF U.S. POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 329 Spencer, G. 1984 Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 924. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1989 Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1988 to 2080. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 1018. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Stoto, M.A. 1983 The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78(381):13–20. Stoto, M.A., and Schrier, A.P. 1982 The accuracy of state population projections. Pp. 276–281 in 1982 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Sykes, Z.M. 1969 Some stochastic versions of the matrix model for population dynamics. Journal of the American Statistical Association 44:111–130. United Nations 1989 World Population Prospects, 1988. New York: United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Voss, P.R., Palit, C.D., Kale, B.D., and Krebs, B.C. 1981a Forecasting State Populations Using AR1MA Time Series Techniques. Applied Population Laboratory, Department of Rural Sociology. Madison: University of Wisconsin. 1981b An analysis of error structure. Pp. 436–441 in 1981 Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Wade, A. 1984 Social Security Area Population Projections 1984. Actuarial Study. No. 92. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1985 Social Security Area Population Projections 1985. Actuarial Study. No. 95. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1986 Social Security Area Population Projections 1986. Actuarial Study. No. 97. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1987 Social Security Area Population Projections 1987. Actuarial Study. No. 99. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1988 Social Security Area Population Projections 1988. Actuarial Study. No. 102. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Wilkin, J.C. 1983 Social Security Area Population Projections 1983. Actuarial Study. No 88. Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF U.S. POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 330

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers Get This Book
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This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the costs and population impacts of proposed changes in government policies ranging from welfare to retirement income to health care to taxes.

The material spans data inputs to models, design and computer implementation of models, validation of model outputs, and model documentation.

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