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Suggested Citation:"SIMULATION OF LONGITUDINAL HISTORIES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 123
Suggested Citation:"SIMULATION OF LONGITUDINAL HISTORIES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 124
Suggested Citation:"SIMULATION OF LONGITUDINAL HISTORIES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 125

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DYNASIM2 AND PRISM: EXAMPLES OF DYNAMIC MODELING 123 1979 CPS. PRISM also uses a database of pension plan provisions that was created by ICF. The model selects one of those pension plans for individuals who obtain a new job during the simulation. CONTROL TOTALS Both models use control totals in order to keep the annual aggregate levels of the major simulated variables in line with accepted projections of these variables over time. (These aggregates include birth rates, death rates, marriage rates, labor force participation, employment, and similar variables.) The individual simulation modules govern the distribution of events across demographic groups. After the simulation is run, the aggregate result is compared with the control total for that year, and if they differ, the results are proportionally adjusted in order to preserve the distribution across demographic groups while still yielding an aggregate that agrees with the control total. Control totals for the two models are taken from similar sources. PRISM uses the alternative II-B assumptions from the report of the trustees of the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds to control projections of demographic events, the average wage, unemployment, interest rates, inflation rates, and wage growth. The model uses Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections to control for employment levels and the proportion of the labor force in each industry over time. DYNASIM2 uses the most recent assumptions from the OASDI trustees' report to control demographic events and economic variables (generally, the most recent II-B assumptions) and Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections to control employment variables. Control totals in both models are updated with changes in the external economic and demographic projections. Moreover, the models can accommodate alternative assumptions, chosen by the analyst, about the time path of these control totals. SIMULATION OF LONGITUDINAL HISTORIES A dynamic simulation model uses information contained in the cross-sectional database as a starting point for the simulation of longitudinal histories of demographic and labor force events for individuals. The longitudinal histories in DYNASIM2 and PRISM are created by a set of modules that simulate each event in the following sequence: death, birth, marriage, divorce, labor force participation, through unemployment. Starting with the first year, the modules run in turn for each individual. The first individual goes through each module for the first year (death, birth, etc.), then the next individual goes through each module, and so on, until all individuals have gone through the demographic and labor force events modules for the first year. Then year 2 is simulated, starting with the first individual, from death through unemployment, and ending with the last individual.

DYNASIM2 AND PRISM: EXAMPLES OF DYNAMIC MODELING 124 TABLE 1 Basic Features of DYNASIM2 and PRISM Feature DYNASIM2 PRISM Input Data Exact match of March 1973 CPS and Exact match of March 1978 CPS social security earnings records and social security earnings records; also matched with March and May 1979 CPS Lewin/ICF retirement plan provisions database Simulation base year 1972 1977 Information in simulation database Demographic 1973 1978–1979 Income 1972 1977–1978 Employment 1972–1973 1977–1979 Quarters of social security coverage 1937–1972 1937–1977 Social security taxable earnings 1951–1972 1951–1977 Pension characteristics 1979 Events simulated to create longitudinal histories Demographic Death Death Birth Birth Marriage Marriage Divorce Divorce Disability Disability Leaving home Education level Migration Labor force Participation Annual hours of work Annual hours of participation Hourly wage Hourly wage Whether unemployed Proportion of labor force hours unemployed Job and pension characteristics Job change Industry Pension coverage Pension plan assignment Retirement and benefit acceptance Pension acceptance Social security acceptance

DYNASIM2 AND PRISM: EXAMPLES OF DYNAMIC MODELING 125 Feature DYNASIM2 PRISM Individual retirement account (IRA) Adoption Contributions Simulations based on longitudinal histories Job and pension characteristics Job change Industry Pension coverage Plan participation Employer pension Pension eligibility Benefit computation Type of plan Benefit formula Plan constants Benefit computation Social security Retirement benefit eligibility Retirement benefit eligibility Retirement benefit computation Retirement benefit computation Disability benefit Disability benefit Spouse benefit Spouse benefit Children's benefit Children's benefit Individual retirement account (IRA) Participation Distribution Accumulations Distribution Retirement Whether leave job Whether accept new job Supplemental security income Eligibility Eligibility Benefits Benefits Participation Participation Taxes Federal income tax Federal income tax Social security payroll tax Social security payroll tax State income tax NOTE: Table does not include the PRISM Long- Term Care Financing Model. SOURCE: DYNASIM2: Johnson, Wertheimer, and Zedlewski (1983) and Johnson and Zedlewski (1982); PRISM: Kennell and Sheils (1986).

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers Get This Book
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This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the costs and population impacts of proposed changes in government policies ranging from welfare to retirement income to health care to taxes.

The material spans data inputs to models, design and computer implementation of models, validation of model outputs, and model documentation.

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