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DYNASIM2 AND PRISM: EXAMPLES OF DYNAMIC MODELING 136 and incomes far into the future. Changes in demographic events and labor supply are quite likely once a significant policy change has occurred. For example, policy changes that make the social security system less generous are likely to lead to compensating changes in labor supply, savings behavior, and retirement plans by people who are 30 years away from the ânormalâ retirement age. Currently, the dynamic models could incorporate a response if an analyst changed parameters for labor force participation, but this response would not be based on an explicit relationship between the policy change and labor supply decisions. New development work on the DYNASIM2 model will improve its flexibility by fully integrating the retirement decision with other demographic and economic events and with policy changes. Further development to expand opportunities for policy changes to feed back to demographic and economic events would enable both of these models to reflect current theory and estimates of behavioral responses to policy. Finally, the models would be better served by documentation that is clear, well-organized, and up-to-date. These are very large and complex computer models, and the documentation for both PRISM and DYNASIM2 contains sections that are too tersely written to provide a full understanding of essential features of the models and how those features interact. Leaving so muc h to the imagination does not help to convince an analyst that the model is a sound policy analysis tool. In addition, at least one of the module descriptions included in the current documentation of DYNASIM2 is from a prior version of that module. Accessible, current documentation should be integrated with model development efforts. This would, at least, help market the models to potential users and funders, and, at best, help analysts to more fully exercise the capabilities of these models for policy analysis. REFERENCES Anderson, Joseph M. 1990 Micro-macro linkages in economic models. Pp. 187â220 in Gordon H.Lewis and Richard C.Michel, eds., Micro simulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Burkhauser, Richard, and Quinn, Joseph 1981 The Relationship Between Mandatory Retirement Age Limits and Pension Rules in the Retirement Decision. Research Report 1348â03. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. Holden, Russell 1980 Revised Models of Labor Force Hours, Wage Rates, and Earnings for DYNASIM. Working Paper 5908â2. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. Johnson, Jon, and Zedlewski, Sheila, R. 1982 The Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM), Volume II, The Jobs and Benefits History Model. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.
DYNASIM2 AND PRISM: EXAMPLES OF DYNAMIC MODELING 137 Johnson, Jon, Wertheimer, Richard, and Zedlewski, Sheila R. 1983 The Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM), Volume I, The Family and Earnings History Model. Revised. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Kennell, David, and Sheils, John F. 1986 The ICF Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model (PRISM) With the ICF/Brookings Long-Term Care Financing Model. Draft Technical Documentation. ICF Incorporated, Washington, D.C. 1990 PRISM: Dynamic simulation of pension and retirement income. Pp. 137â172 in Gordon H.Lewis and Richard P.Michel, eds., Microsimulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Orcutt, Guy H., Glazer, Amihai, Harris, Robert, and Wertheimer, Richard, II 1980 Microanalytic modeling and the analysis of public transfer policies. Pp. 81â106 in Robert H.Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press. Zedlewski, Sheila R. 1990 The development of the Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM). Pp. 109â136 in Gordon H.Lewis and Richard C.Michel, eds., Microsimulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.
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