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Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 118
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 119
Suggested Citation:"REFERENCES." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1853.
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Page 120

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ALTERNATIVE MODEL DESIGNS: PROGRAM PARTICIPATION FUNCTIONS AND THE ALLOCATION OF ANNUAL TO 118 MONTHLY VALUES IN TRIM2, MATH, AND HITSM the household head and gross income), the discrepancies ma y indicate reporting errors in the AFDC case records as well. This discussion has dealt with calibration of the TRIM2 baseline files. A key issue has to do with the impact of the participation rates derived from the baseline files on the simulation of program alternatives. Unfortunately, very few data are available with which to address this question. The panel's experiment contains some results that have not been studied, but could be, to shed more light on the issue. Specifically, two additional baseline files were created for 1983 and 1987, both incorporating adjustments for estimated population undercoverage in the March CPS. Also, output is available from simulating the 1987 AFDC program law on both the adjusted and the unadjusted 1983 baseline files. Further analysis of these data and specification of additional validation studies specifically directed to evaluation of participation functions in TRIM2 and other microsimulation models seem warranted. REFERENCES Beebout, Harold 1989 Income Reference and Accounting Periods: MATH FSP Model. Unpublished memorandum. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Beebout, Harold, and Haworth, Lauren 1989 Microsimulation Estimates Versus Reality: A Case Study. Unpublished memorandum. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Bureau of the Census 1990 Current Population Survey, March 1989 Tape Technical Documentation. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Czajka, John L. 1981 Determinants of Participation in the Food Stamp Program: Spring 1979. Final report to the Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. David, Martin, and Fitzgerald, John 1987 Measuring Poverty and Crises: A Comparison of Annual and Subannual Accounting Periods Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Doyle, Pat 1984a An Analysis of Intra-Year Income Receipt. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. 1984b An analysis of intra-year unearned income flows on the ISDP. In Proceedings of the Section on Social Statistics. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. 1989 The MATH Codebook. Edition including all variables currently in use by the Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. 1990 Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: August 1985. Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., for the Food and Nutrition Service. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

ALTERNATIVE MODEL DESIGNS: PROGRAM PARTICIPATION FUNCTIONS AND THE ALLOCATION OF ANNUAL TO 119 MONTHLY VALUES IN TRIM2, MATH, AND HITSM Doyle, Pat, Trippe, Carole, Huff, Ann, and Coffin, Kirsten, eds. 1990 MATH Technical Description: Current Services Files. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Giannarelli, Linda 1989a Alignment of AFDC Results to Target Data. Unpublished memorandum. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. 1989b Simulation Results Using Files Adjusted for the Undercount. Unpublished memorandum. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. 1990 Looking at the Quality of the 1987 Baseline Run, and the Quality of the March 1988 CPS. Unpublished memorandum. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. Kormendi, Roger C., and Meguire, Philip 1988 Dynamic Validation of the TRIM Welfare Simulation Model. Draft report to the Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. Lewin/ICF, Inc. 1988 The Household Income and Tax Simulation Model (HITSM): Methodology and Documentation. Washington, D.C.: Lewin/ICF, Inc. Long, Sharon K. 1990 Improving Income Allocation in TRIM2: An Assessment of the Months Module. Report to the Congressional Budget Office. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Lubitz, I.S., and Carr, T.J. 1985 Turnover in the Food Stamp Program in 1979: The Role of Trigger Events. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Lubitz, Irene, and Doyle, Pat 1986 Food Stamp Monthly Income—Allocating Annual Income in the MATH Model. Unpublished memorandum. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Ruggles, Patricia 1988 Short-term fluctuations in income and their relationship to the characteristics of the low- income population: New data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Pp. 403–421 in Proceedings of the Bureau of the Census Fourth Annual Research Conference. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Ruggles, Patricia, and Michel, Richard C. 1987 Participation Rates in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program: Trends for 1967 Through 1984. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Ruggles, Patricia, and Williams, Roberton 1989 Measuring the Duration of Poverty Spells. SIPP Working Paper No. 8909. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Springs, Ricardo, and Allen, Jodie 1976 Simulation of the Impact of Income Reporting and Accounting Procedures on Food Stamp Costs and Caseloads. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Uhalde, Raymond J. 1976 An Empirical Analysis of Monthly Income Instability and Its Impact on Saving and Labor Supply Behavior. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Urban Institute 1987 TRIM2 Codebooks. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

ALTERNATIVE MODEL DESIGNS: PROGRAM PARTICIPATION FUNCTIONS AND THE ALLOCATION OF ANNUAL TO 120 MONTHLY VALUES IN TRIM2, MATH, AND HITSM U.S. House of Representatives 1990 Overview of Entitlement Programs: 1990 Green Book. Background Material and Data on Programs Within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Webb, Randall L., Hager, Clara, Murray, Douglas, and Simon, Eric 1982 TRIM2 Simulation Modules. 2 vols. (A–M and N–Z). March 1982 plus updates. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Webb, Randall L., Bergsman, Anne, Hager, Clara, Murray, Douglas, and Simon, Eric 1986 TRIM2 Reference Manual: The Framework for Microsimulation. Working Paper 3069–01. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Williams, Roberton 1986 Poverty rates and program participation in the SIPP and the CPS. In Proceedings of the Section on Social Statistics. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Young, Nathan, and Giannarelli, Linda 1988 Calibration of Microsimulation Models to Program Data. Paper prepared for “Finding the Future,” Second Joint Conference on Integrating Data for Decisionmaking. Sponsored by the National Governors' Association, Center for Policy Research, Washington, D.C.

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This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the costs and population impacts of proposed changes in government policies ranging from welfare to retirement income to health care to taxes.

The material spans data inputs to models, design and computer implementation of models, validation of model outputs, and model documentation.

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